Abstract：
A pioneering study employed a holistic geostatistical approach to predict the spatial variability of a non sampled area in the Chenab River, Pakistan, using kriging interpolation for organochlorine pesticide (OCP)-polluted risk zones. The Present research intended to investigate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks, contamination levels, and spatial variation of OCPs in the Chenab River, Pakistan. The residual OCP content in sediment samples (n = 120) ranged from 0.056 to 32.14 ng/g. DDE and α-HCH were prevalent among all the samples analyzed, with mean concentrations of 15.84 ± 8.02 and 12.45 ± 6.72 ng/g, respectively. The order of magnitude of OCPs in sediment samples was DDTs > α-HCH > chlorothalonil > heptachlor > endosulfan > aldrin > dieldrin. The findings of the single (SPI) and Nemerow (Nel) pollution index of α-HCH, heptachlor, and aldrin depicted the Chenab River as a serious pollution risk zone. The outcomes of the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis represent the positive correlation among all OCPs, revealing the common origin. Distribution trends showed substantially higher (p < 0.05) contents of analyzed OCPs along the downstream zone. With regards to USEPA human health hazard assessment model, the estimated non-carcinogenic (ΣHI) and non-carcinogenic (ΣTCR) risk ranged from 1.1 × 10-5 to 1.0 × 10-1, 4.0 × 10-8 to 3.2 × 10-4 respectively. TCR >10-4 illustrated a substantial cancer health risk posed by α-HCH, heptachlor, aldrin, and dieldrin in the downstream zone. We recommend the urgent cessation of the ongoing discharge of OCPs into the Chenab River, which needs to be highlighted owing to the significant cancer risk to public health to ensure the good health and wellbeings.
摘要：
一项开创性的研究采用了整体地统计学方法来预测Chenab河中非采样区域的空间变异性，巴基斯坦,对有机氯农药(OCP)污染的危险区使用克里格插值。本研究旨在调查致癌和非致癌的人类健康风险，污染水平，以及Chenab河中OCP的空间变化，巴基斯坦。沉积物样品中的残余OCP含量（n=120）为0.056至32.14ng/g。DDE和甲型六氯环己烷在所有分析的样本中普遍存在，平均浓度为15.84±8.02和12.45±6.72ng/g，分别。沉积物样品中OCPs的数量级为DDTs>α-HCH>百菌清>七氯>硫丹>艾氏剂>狄氏剂。甲型六氯环己烷的单一（SPI）和内梅罗（Nel）污染指数的发现，七氯,奥尔德林将Chenab河描述为严重的污染风险区。皮尔逊相关系数分析的结果代表了所有OCP之间的正相关，揭示共同的起源。分布趋势显示沿着下游区的分析的OCP的含量明显更高(p<0.05)。关于USEPA人类健康危害评估模型，估计的非致癌（ΣHI）和非致癌（ΣTCR）风险范围分别为1.1×10-5至1.0×10-1、4.0×10-8至3.2×10-4。TCR>10-4说明了甲型六氯环己烷对癌症健康造成的巨大风险，七氯,艾氏剂,和下游区的狄氏剂。我们建议紧急停止持续向Chenab河排放OCPs，需要强调的是，由于癌症对公众健康的重大风险，以确保良好的健康和福祉。
