Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).
UNASSIGNED: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined.
UNASSIGNED: Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant.
UNASSIGNED: The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.
UNASSIGNED: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined.
UNASSIGNED: Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant.
UNASSIGNED: The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.
摘要：
目标：评估2023年秋季更新的冠状病毒病2019（COVID-19）mRNA疫苗在1年分析时间范围内（2023年9月至2024年8月）对德国≥60岁的成年人和30-59岁的高危人群的潜在临床影响和成本效益。方法：更新了隔室易感暴露感染恢复模型，并使其适应德国市场。有症状的感染数量，与COVID-19相关的住院治疗和死亡人数，成本,并使用决策树模型计算获得的质量调整寿命年(QALYs)。将2023年秋季Moderna更新的COVID-19（mRNA-1273.815）疫苗的增量成本效益比与没有额外接种疫苗进行比较。mRNA-1273.815与辉瑞-BioNTech秋季更新的COVID-19（XBB.1.5BNT162b2）疫苗之间的潜在差异，以及mRNA-1273.815疫苗相对于没有接种疫苗的社会投资回报，也被检查过。结果：与没有秋季疫苗接种相比，mRNA-1273.815运动预计可预防约1,697,900例有症状的感染，85,400例住院治疗，4100人死亡。与XBB.1.5BNT162b2活动相比，mRNA-1273.815运动还预计可预防约90,100例有症状的感染，3,500例住院治疗，160人死亡。在两项分析中，我们发现mRNA-1273.815活动占主导地位。结论：相对于XBB.1.5BNT162b2疫苗，mRNA-1273.815疫苗可以被认为具有成本效益，并且与德国没有疫苗相比，极有可能提供更多的好处并节省成本。并提供高社会投资回报。
