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Abstract：
Under the Global Methane Pledge, Canada is developing oil and gas sector methane regulations targeting 75% reductions from 2012 levels by 2030. Without measured baselines and inventories, such policies are ultimately unverifiable and unenforceable. Using the major oil and gas producing province of Saskatchewan as a case study, we derive first-ever measurement-based methane inventories for the region and comprehensively model previous emissions back to the 2012 baseline. Although relative reductions of 23-69% have likely occurred, the dispersion of modeled possibilities and the high emissions from continuing production illustrate the limits of this approach as a meaningful policy metric. Moreover, nearly 90% of apparent reductions are explained by decreased production at heavy oil facilities, suggesting emissions have potential to rebound if production resumes. By contrast, derived measurement-based methane emissions intensities facilitate quantitative assessment and show that despite any past reductions, Saskatchewan\'s 0.41 ± 0.03 g/MJ intensity remains among the highest in North America. This highlights how relative reduction targets absent measured baselines and inventories are inherently futile and risk rewarding high emitters while obscuring ongoing mitigation potential. Ultimately, required global methane reductions will only be achieved by adopting objectively and independently verifiable emission metrics while measuring and tracking progress toward a net zero future.
摘要：
根据全球甲烷承诺，加拿大正在制定石油和天然气行业甲烷法规，目标是到2030年在2012年的基础上减少75％。没有衡量的基线和库存，这些政策最终是不可验证和不可执行的。以萨斯喀彻温省的石油和天然气生产大省为例，我们得出了该地区有史以来首次基于测量的甲烷清单，并将以前的排放量全面建模为2012年的基线。尽管可能发生了23-69％的相对减少，模型可能性的分散和持续生产的高排放说明了这种方法作为有意义的政策度量的局限性。此外，近90%的表观减产是由重油设施产量下降解释的，这表明，如果恢复生产，排放量有可能反弹。相比之下,基于测量得出的甲烷排放强度有助于定量评估，并表明尽管过去有任何减少，萨斯喀彻温省的0.41±0.03g/MJ强度仍然是北美最高的。这凸显了缺乏衡量的基线和清单的相对减少目标本质上是徒劳的，并且有可能奖励高排放者，同时掩盖了持续的缓解潜力。最终,所需的全球甲烷减排量只有通过采用客观和独立可验证的排放指标，同时衡量和跟踪净零未来的进展，才能实现。
