Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines updated for fall 2023 in adults aged ≥18 years over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).
UNASSIGNED: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated to reflect COVID-19 cases in summer 2023. The numbers of symptomatic infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a Moderna updated mRNA fall 2023 vaccine (Moderna Fall Campaign) was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech fall 2023 vaccines were also examined.
UNASSIGNED: Base case results suggest that the Moderna Fall Campaign would decrease the expected 64.2 million symptomatic infections by 7.2 million (11%) to 57.0 million. COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths are expected to decline by 343,000 (-29%) and 50,500 (-33%), respectively. The Moderna Fall Campaign would increase QALYs by 740,880 and healthcare costs by $5.7 billion relative to no vaccine, yielding an ICER of $7700 per QALY gained. Using a societal cost perspective, the ICER is $2100. Sensitivity analyses suggest that vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization rates, and costs drive cost-effectiveness. With a relative vaccine effectiveness of 5.1% for infection and 9.8% for hospitalization for the Moderna vaccine versus the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, use of the Moderna vaccine is expected to prevent 24,000 more hospitalizations and 3300 more deaths than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
UNASSIGNED: As COVID-19 becomes endemic, future incidence, including patterns of infection, are highly uncertain. The effectiveness of fall 2023 vaccines is unknown, and it is unclear when a new variant that evades natural or vaccine immunity will emerge. Despite these limitations, our model predicts the Moderna Fall Campaign vaccine is highly cost-effective across all sensitivity analyses.
UNASSIGNED: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated to reflect COVID-19 cases in summer 2023. The numbers of symptomatic infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a Moderna updated mRNA fall 2023 vaccine (Moderna Fall Campaign) was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech fall 2023 vaccines were also examined.
UNASSIGNED: Base case results suggest that the Moderna Fall Campaign would decrease the expected 64.2 million symptomatic infections by 7.2 million (11%) to 57.0 million. COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths are expected to decline by 343,000 (-29%) and 50,500 (-33%), respectively. The Moderna Fall Campaign would increase QALYs by 740,880 and healthcare costs by $5.7 billion relative to no vaccine, yielding an ICER of $7700 per QALY gained. Using a societal cost perspective, the ICER is $2100. Sensitivity analyses suggest that vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization rates, and costs drive cost-effectiveness. With a relative vaccine effectiveness of 5.1% for infection and 9.8% for hospitalization for the Moderna vaccine versus the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, use of the Moderna vaccine is expected to prevent 24,000 more hospitalizations and 3300 more deaths than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
UNASSIGNED: As COVID-19 becomes endemic, future incidence, including patterns of infection, are highly uncertain. The effectiveness of fall 2023 vaccines is unknown, and it is unclear when a new variant that evades natural or vaccine immunity will emerge. Despite these limitations, our model predicts the Moderna Fall Campaign vaccine is highly cost-effective across all sensitivity analyses.
摘要：
■评估2023年秋季更新的COVID-19mRNA疫苗在1年分析时间范围内（2023年9月至2024年8月）对≥18岁的成年人的潜在临床影响和成本效益。
■更新了隔室易感暴露感染恢复模型，以反映2023年夏季的COVID-19病例。有症状的感染数量，与COVID-19相关的住院和死亡，使用决策树模型计算获得的成本和质量调整寿命年(QALY)。将Moderna更新的mRNA秋季2023疫苗（ModernaFallCampaign）的增量成本效益比（ICER）与没有额外疫苗接种进行了比较。还研究了Moderna和辉瑞-BioNTech2023秋季疫苗之间的潜在差异。
■基本案例结果表明，ModernaFall运动将使预期的6420万有症状的感染减少720万（11％）至5700万。与COVID-19相关的住院人数和死亡人数预计将减少343,000人（-29%）和50,500人（-33%），分别。与没有疫苗相比，ModernaFall运动将使QALY增加740,880，医疗保健费用增加57亿美元，每QALY收益为7700美元。从社会成本的角度来看，ICER是2100美元。敏感性分析表明，疫苗的有效性，COVID-19发病率，住院率，和成本推动成本效益。与Pfizer-BioNTech疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗对感染的相对疫苗效力为5.1％，住院治疗的相对疫苗效力为9.8％，与Pfizer-BioNTech疫苗相比，使用Moderna疫苗预计可预防24,000例住院病例和3300例死亡病例。
■随着COVID-19成为地方病，未来发病率，包括感染模式，是高度不确定的。2023年秋季疫苗的有效性尚不清楚，目前尚不清楚何时会出现逃避自然或疫苗免疫的新变体。尽管有这些限制,我们的模型预测,在所有敏感性分析中,ModernaFallCampaign疫苗的成本效益都很高.
■更新了隔室易感暴露感染恢复模型，以反映2023年夏季的COVID-19病例。有症状的感染数量，与COVID-19相关的住院和死亡，使用决策树模型计算获得的成本和质量调整寿命年(QALY)。将Moderna更新的mRNA秋季2023疫苗（ModernaFallCampaign）的增量成本效益比（ICER）与没有额外疫苗接种进行了比较。还研究了Moderna和辉瑞-BioNTech2023秋季疫苗之间的潜在差异。
■基本案例结果表明，ModernaFall运动将使预期的6420万有症状的感染减少720万（11％）至5700万。与COVID-19相关的住院人数和死亡人数预计将减少343,000人（-29%）和50,500人（-33%），分别。与没有疫苗相比，ModernaFall运动将使QALY增加740,880，医疗保健费用增加57亿美元，每QALY收益为7700美元。从社会成本的角度来看，ICER是2100美元。敏感性分析表明，疫苗的有效性，COVID-19发病率，住院率，和成本推动成本效益。与Pfizer-BioNTech疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗对感染的相对疫苗效力为5.1％，住院治疗的相对疫苗效力为9.8％，与Pfizer-BioNTech疫苗相比，使用Moderna疫苗预计可预防24,000例住院病例和3300例死亡病例。
■随着COVID-19成为地方病，未来发病率，包括感染模式，是高度不确定的。2023年秋季疫苗的有效性尚不清楚，目前尚不清楚何时会出现逃避自然或疫苗免疫的新变体。尽管有这些限制,我们的模型预测,在所有敏感性分析中,ModernaFallCampaign疫苗的成本效益都很高.
