Abstract：
Given that war can have a serious impact on the climate, this article is aimed to discuss the impact of warfare on carbon emissions by examining changes in CO2 before and during the war in Syria based on the kaya constant equation and the LMDI decomposition method. In the decade before the war, population was the largest contributor, making up 32.64% of the total 51.02% increase in carbon emissions. The only factor that offsetting carbon emissions was energy intensity, making a 22.30% curbing effect. In the early stage of the war, carbon emissions decreased by 56.38%, in which per capita GDP contributed 37.55% of the total CO2 decline. Carbon intensive of energy was the only factor promoting the carbon increase with a 4.67% contribution. In the late war, carbon emissions start to resume slow increase with energy intensity and economy turning negative to positive. It can be speculated that the impact of the war on CO2 emissions: (i) in the first years of the war, CO2 would drop significantly at the cost of significant population decline and economic recession, the least desirable and the worst way to reduce carbon emissions. (ii) if evolves into a prolonged war, it would reverse carbon emissions from decline to increase, although the population and the economy are both falling. This research, therefore contends that once war is triggered, there is no other solution to prevent this worst-case scenario of Population Decline - Economic Recession - Increased Carbon Emissions from happening, unless the war is stopped immediately.
摘要：
鉴于战争会对气候产生严重影响，本文旨在基于卡亚恒等式和LMDI分解方法，通过检查叙利亚战争前和战争期间二氧化碳的变化来讨论战争对碳排放的影响。在战争前的十年里，人口是最大的贡献者，占碳排放总量增长51.02%的32.64%。抵消碳排放的唯一因素是能源强度，做出了22.30%的遏制效果。在战争初期,碳排放量下降56.38%,其中人均GDP占二氧化碳总量下降的37.55%。能源的碳密集型是促进碳增长的唯一因素，贡献了4.67％。在战争后期,随着能源强度和经济由负转正，碳排放开始恢复缓慢增长。可以推测，战争对二氧化碳排放的影响：（i）在战争的头几年，二氧化碳将大幅下降，以人口大幅下降和经济衰退为代价，减少碳排放的最不可取和最糟糕的方法。(ii)如果演变成一场旷日持久的战争，它将使碳排放量从下降转变为增加，尽管人口和经济都在下降。这项研究,因此认为，一旦战争被触发，没有其他解决方案可以防止人口下降-经济衰退-碳排放增加的最坏情况发生，除非战争立即停止。
