PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Pancreatitis poses a serious medical problem worldwide. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2019, analyze the association between disease burden and age, period and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of pancreatitis incidence and deaths.
Epidemiologic data were gathered from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort. We also predicted the global epidemiological trends to 2044.
Globally, the incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis increased 1.63-and 1.65-fold from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased over the past three decades. The age effect indicates that older people have higher age-specific incidence and death rates. The period effect on incidence and deaths showed downward trends from 1990 to 2019. The cohort effect demonstrated that incidence and death risk peaked in the earlier birth cohort and were lower in the latest birth cohort. Incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis may significantly increase in the next 25 years. The ASIRs were predicted to slightly increase, while the ASDRs were predicted to decrease.
Epidemiologic patterns and trends of pancreatitis across age, period and birth cohort may provide novel insight into public health. Limitations of alcohol use and prevention strategies for pancreatitis are necessary to reduce future burden.
Epidemiologic data were gathered from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort. We also predicted the global epidemiological trends to 2044.
Globally, the incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis increased 1.63-and 1.65-fold from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased over the past three decades. The age effect indicates that older people have higher age-specific incidence and death rates. The period effect on incidence and deaths showed downward trends from 1990 to 2019. The cohort effect demonstrated that incidence and death risk peaked in the earlier birth cohort and were lower in the latest birth cohort. Incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis may significantly increase in the next 25 years. The ASIRs were predicted to slightly increase, while the ASDRs were predicted to decrease.
Epidemiologic patterns and trends of pancreatitis across age, period and birth cohort may provide novel insight into public health. Limitations of alcohol use and prevention strategies for pancreatitis are necessary to reduce future burden.
摘要：
■胰腺炎在全球范围内构成了严重的医学问题。本研究旨在探讨1990-2019年胰腺炎的流行病学趋势，分析疾病负担与年龄的关系。时期和出生队列，并随后提出了胰腺炎发病率和死亡的预测。
■流行病学数据来自全球卫生数据交换查询工具。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年平均百分比变化(AAPC)。年龄周期队列分析用于估计年龄的独立影响，时期和出生队列。我们还预测了到2044年的全球流行病学趋势。
■全球，从1990年到2019年,胰腺炎的事件病例和死亡分别增加了1.63倍和1.65倍.Joinpoint回归分析表明，在过去的三十年中，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）有所下降。年龄效应表明，老年人具有更高的年龄特异性发病率和死亡率。从1990年到2019年，对发病率和死亡的时期影响呈下降趋势。队列效应表明，发病率和死亡风险在早期出生队列中达到峰值，在最新出生队列中更低。在接下来的25年中，胰腺炎的发病率和死亡率可能会大大增加。ASIR预计会略有增加，而ASDR预计会下降。
■不同年龄胰腺炎的流行病学模式和趋势，时期和出生队列可能为公共卫生提供新的见解。限制酒精使用和胰腺炎的预防策略对于减轻未来的负担是必要的。
■流行病学数据来自全球卫生数据交换查询工具。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年平均百分比变化(AAPC)。年龄周期队列分析用于估计年龄的独立影响，时期和出生队列。我们还预测了到2044年的全球流行病学趋势。
■全球，从1990年到2019年,胰腺炎的事件病例和死亡分别增加了1.63倍和1.65倍.Joinpoint回归分析表明，在过去的三十年中，年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）有所下降。年龄效应表明，老年人具有更高的年龄特异性发病率和死亡率。从1990年到2019年，对发病率和死亡的时期影响呈下降趋势。队列效应表明，发病率和死亡风险在早期出生队列中达到峰值，在最新出生队列中更低。在接下来的25年中，胰腺炎的发病率和死亡率可能会大大增加。ASIR预计会略有增加，而ASDR预计会下降。
■不同年龄胰腺炎的流行病学模式和趋势，时期和出生队列可能为公共卫生提供新的见解。限制酒精使用和胰腺炎的预防策略对于减轻未来的负担是必要的。
