Abstract：
Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.
摘要：
森林为社会提供了各种各样的生态系统服务（ES）。北方生物群落正在经历地球上最高的变暖速度，对森林产品的需求不断增加。预见如何最大限度地适应北方森林未来的温暖条件和日益增长的林产品需求，我们需要更好地了解森林管理和气候变化对生态系统服务供应的相对重要性。这里,使用芬兰作为北方森林案例研究，我们评估了广泛的ES(木材，越橘,牛莓,蘑菇,碳储存，风景秀丽,物种栖息地的可用性和枯木）给出了七个管理制度和四个气候变化情景。我们使用森林模拟器SIMO预测未来100年的森林动态（2016-2116），并使用已发布的模型估计每种服务的潜在供应。然后，我们使用广义线性混合模型测试了管理和气候变化作为这些服务未来供应驱动因素的相对重要性.我们的结果表明，管理对这些ES未来供应的影响是，平均而言,比所有服务的气候变化影响高11倍，但它们之间有很大的不同(木材和越橘从0.53到24倍高，分别)。值得注意的是,这些驱动因素的重要性在北方生物群落内的生物地理带之间存在很大差异。芬兰北部的气候变化影响是芬兰南部的1.6倍，而管理的效果则相反——与北方相比，南方的效果是北方的三倍。我们得出的结论是，使森林适应全球变化的新指南应考虑区域差异以及气候变化和管理对不同森林ES的影响的变化。
