Abstract：
Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.
摘要：
野火在最近几十年发生了变化。灾难性的野火使得有必要在国家范围内建立准确的预测模型来组织消防资源。在地中海国家,野火的数量相当多，但主要集中在夏季。由于季节性,有些地区的火灾数量在某些月份为零，而在其他地区则过度分散。零膨胀负二项混合模型适用于这种类型的数据，因为它们可以描述解释火灾数量及其不发生的模式，并且还提供有用的预测工具。除了基于模型的预测，参数自举方法用于估计均方误差和构造预测区间。统计方法和开发的软件用于建模和预测2002年至2015年间西班牙各省和月份的野火数量。
