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Abstract：
Extreme disasters, defined as low-probability-high-consequences events, are often due to cascading effects combined to amplifying environmental factors. While such a risk complexity is commonly addressed by the modeling of site-specific multi-risk scenarios, there exists no harmonized approach that considers the full space of possibilities, based on the general relationships between the environment and the perils that populate it. In this article, I define the concept of a digital template for multi-risk R&D and prototyping in the Generic Multi-Risk (GenMR) framework. This digital template consists of a virtual natural environment where different perils may occur. They are geological (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions), hydrological (river floods, storm surges), meteorological (windstorms, heavy rains), and extraterrestrial (asteroid impacts). Both geological and hydrological perils depend on the characteristics of the natural environment, here defined by two environmental layers: topography and soil. Environmental objects, which alter the layers, are also defined. They are here geomorphic structures linked to some peril source characteristics. Hazard intensity footprints are then generated for primary, secondary, and tertiary perils. The role of the natural environment on intensity footprints and event cascading is emphasized, one example being the generation of a \"quake lake\". Future developments, à la SimCity, are finally discussed.
摘要：
极端灾难,定义为低概率高后果事件，通常是由于级联效应与放大的环境因素。虽然这种风险复杂性通常通过对特定站点的多风险场景进行建模来解决，不存在考虑全部可能性空间的协调方法，基于环境和填充它的危险之间的一般关系。在这篇文章中,我在通用多风险（GenMR）框架中定义了用于多风险研发和原型设计的数字模板的概念。此数字模板由可能发生不同危险的虚拟自然环境组成。它们是地质(地震，山体滑坡,火山喷发)，水文(河流洪水，风暴潮)，气象(风暴，大雨)，和外星（小行星撞击）。地质和水文风险都取决于自然环境的特征，这里由两个环境层定义:地形和土壤。环境对象,改变图层，也被定义。它们是与某些危险源特征有关的地貌结构。然后为初级生成危险强度足迹，次要,和三级危险。强调了自然环境对强度足迹和事件级联的作用，一个例子是“地震湖”的产生。未来的发展,SimCity,最后讨论。
