Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is a tropical disease and a major public health concern, and almost half of the world\'s population lives in areas at risk of contracting this disease. Climate change is identified by WHO and other international health authorities as one of the primary factors that contribute to the rapid spread of dengue fever.
METHODS: We evaluated the effect of sanitation on the cross-correlation between rainfall and the first symptoms of dengue in the city of Mato Grosso do Sul, which is in a state in the Midwest region of Brazil, and employed the time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCAC) method.
RESULTS: Co-movements were obtained through the time-phased DCCAC to analyze the effects of climatic variables on arboviruses. The use of a time-lag analysis was more robust than DCCAC without lag to present the behavior of dengue cases in relation to accumulated precipitation. Our results show that the cross-correlation between rain and dengue increased as the city implemented actions to improve basic sanitation in the city.
CONCLUSIONS: With climate change and the increase in the global average temperature, mosquitoes are advancing beyond the tropics, and our results show that cities with improved sanitation have a high correlation between dengue and annual precipitation. Public prevention and control policies can be targeted according to the period of time and the degree of correlation calculated to structure vector control and prevention work in places where sanitation conditions are adequate.
METHODS: We evaluated the effect of sanitation on the cross-correlation between rainfall and the first symptoms of dengue in the city of Mato Grosso do Sul, which is in a state in the Midwest region of Brazil, and employed the time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCAC) method.
RESULTS: Co-movements were obtained through the time-phased DCCAC to analyze the effects of climatic variables on arboviruses. The use of a time-lag analysis was more robust than DCCAC without lag to present the behavior of dengue cases in relation to accumulated precipitation. Our results show that the cross-correlation between rain and dengue increased as the city implemented actions to improve basic sanitation in the city.
CONCLUSIONS: With climate change and the increase in the global average temperature, mosquitoes are advancing beyond the tropics, and our results show that cities with improved sanitation have a high correlation between dengue and annual precipitation. Public prevention and control policies can be targeted according to the period of time and the degree of correlation calculated to structure vector control and prevention work in places where sanitation conditions are adequate.
摘要：
背景：登革热是一种热带疾病，是一个主要的公共卫生问题，世界上几乎一半的人口生活在有感染这种疾病风险的地区。世卫组织和其他国际卫生当局认为，气候变化是导致登革热迅速传播的主要因素之一。
方法：我们评估了卫生对降雨与南马托格罗索州登革热初期症状之间的相互关系的影响，它位于巴西中西部地区的一个州，并采用了时滞去趋势互相关分析(DCCAC)方法。
结果：通过时间相位的DCCAC获得了共同运动，以分析气候变量对虫媒病毒的影响。使用时间滞后分析比没有滞后的DCCAC更可靠，可以显示登革热病例与累积降水的关系。我们的结果表明，随着城市实施改善城市基本卫生条件的行动，降雨和登革热之间的相互关系增加。
结论：随着气候变化和全球平均温度的升高，蚊子正在超越热带地区，我们的结果表明，卫生条件改善的城市在登革热和年降水量之间有很高的相关性。公共预防和控制政策可以根据时间段和计算出的相关程度来确定目标，以在卫生条件足够的地方进行病媒控制和预防工作。
方法：我们评估了卫生对降雨与南马托格罗索州登革热初期症状之间的相互关系的影响，它位于巴西中西部地区的一个州，并采用了时滞去趋势互相关分析(DCCAC)方法。
结果：通过时间相位的DCCAC获得了共同运动，以分析气候变量对虫媒病毒的影响。使用时间滞后分析比没有滞后的DCCAC更可靠，可以显示登革热病例与累积降水的关系。我们的结果表明，随着城市实施改善城市基本卫生条件的行动，降雨和登革热之间的相互关系增加。
结论：随着气候变化和全球平均温度的升高，蚊子正在超越热带地区，我们的结果表明，卫生条件改善的城市在登革热和年降水量之间有很高的相关性。公共预防和控制政策可以根据时间段和计算出的相关程度来确定目标，以在卫生条件足够的地方进行病媒控制和预防工作。
