Abstract：
Aba\'s topography, weather, and climate make it prone to landslides, mudslides, and other natural disasters, which limit economic and social growth. Assessing and improving regional resilience is important to mitigate natural disasters and achieve sustainable development. In this paper, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the resilience of Aba under multi-hazard stress from 2010 to 2018 by combining the existing framework with the disaster resilience of the place (DROP) model. Then spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed based on the coefficient of variation and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Finally, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used to identify the key influences on disaster resilience. The results show that (1) the disaster resilience in Aba increased from 2010 to 2018 but dropped in 2013 and 2017 due to large-scale disasters. (2) There are temporal and spatial differences in the level of development in each of the Aba counties. From 2010 to 2016, disaster resilience shows a significant positive spatial association and high-high (HH) aggregation in the east and low-low (LL) aggregation in the west. Then the spatial aggregation weakened after 2017. This paper proposes integrating regional development, strengthening the development level building, and emphasizing disaster management for Aba.
摘要：
阿巴的地形，天气,气候使它容易发生山体滑坡，泥石流,和其他自然灾害，这限制了经济和社会的增长。评估和提高区域复原力对于减轻自然灾害和实现可持续发展至关重要。在本文中,采用熵权法将现有框架与地点抗灾能力(DROP)模型相结合,计算了阿坝2010-2018年多灾害压力下的抗灾能力。然后基于变异系数和探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）分析时空特征。最后,偏最小二乘(PLS)回归用于识别对灾害弹性的关键影响。结果表明：（1）阿坝的抗灾能力在2010年至2018年期间有所增加，但在2013年和2017年由于大规模灾害而有所下降。(2)各阿坝县发展水平存在时空差异。从2010年到2016年，东部和西部的低低（LL）聚集显示出明显的正空间关联和高（HH）聚集。然后空间聚集在2017年后减弱。本文提出整合区域发展,加强发展水平建设，并强调阿坝的灾害管理。
