Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Emerging SARS-COV-2 variants are spurring the development of adapted vaccines as public health authorities plan for fall vaccinations. This study estimated the number of infections and hospitalizations prevented by three potential booster strategies for adults (≥18 years) in the United States: boosting with either Moderna\'s (1) licensed first generation monovalent vaccine mRNA-1273 (ancestral strain) or (2) candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.214 (ancestral + BA.1 variant of concern [VOC]) starting in September 2022, or (3) Moderna\'s updated candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.222 (ancestral + BA.4/5 VOC) starting November 2022 due to longer development time.
UNASSIGNED: An age-stratified, transmission dynamic, Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) model, adapted from previous literature, was used to estimate infections over time; the model contains compartments defined by SEIR and vaccination status. A decision tree was used to estimate clinical consequences of infections. Calibration was performed so the model tracks the actual course of the pandemic to present time.
UNASSIGNED: Vaccinating with mRNA-1273(Sept), mRNA-1273.214(Sept), and mRNA-1273.222(Nov) is predicted to reduce infections by 34%, 40%, and 18%, respectively, and hospitalizations by 42%, 48%, and 25%, respectively, over 6 months compared to no booster. Sensitivity analyses around transmissibility, vaccine coverage, masking, and waning illustrate that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 in September prevented more cases of infection and hospitalization than the other vaccines.
UNASSIGNED: With the emergence of new variants, key characteristics of the virus that affect estimates of spread and clinical impact also evolve, making parameter estimation difficult. Our analysis demonstrated that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 was more effective over 6 months in preventing infections and hospitalizations with a BA.4/5 subvariant than the tailored vaccine, simply because it could be deployed 2 months earlier. We conclude that there is no advantage to delay boosting until a more effective BA.4/5 vaccine is available; earlier boosting with mRNA-1273.214 will prevent the most infections and hospitalizations.
UNASSIGNED: An age-stratified, transmission dynamic, Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) model, adapted from previous literature, was used to estimate infections over time; the model contains compartments defined by SEIR and vaccination status. A decision tree was used to estimate clinical consequences of infections. Calibration was performed so the model tracks the actual course of the pandemic to present time.
UNASSIGNED: Vaccinating with mRNA-1273(Sept), mRNA-1273.214(Sept), and mRNA-1273.222(Nov) is predicted to reduce infections by 34%, 40%, and 18%, respectively, and hospitalizations by 42%, 48%, and 25%, respectively, over 6 months compared to no booster. Sensitivity analyses around transmissibility, vaccine coverage, masking, and waning illustrate that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 in September prevented more cases of infection and hospitalization than the other vaccines.
UNASSIGNED: With the emergence of new variants, key characteristics of the virus that affect estimates of spread and clinical impact also evolve, making parameter estimation difficult. Our analysis demonstrated that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 was more effective over 6 months in preventing infections and hospitalizations with a BA.4/5 subvariant than the tailored vaccine, simply because it could be deployed 2 months earlier. We conclude that there is no advantage to delay boosting until a more effective BA.4/5 vaccine is available; earlier boosting with mRNA-1273.214 will prevent the most infections and hospitalizations.
摘要：
未经评估：随着公共卫生当局计划秋季疫苗接种，新兴的SARS-COV-2变种正在刺激适应性疫苗的开发。这项研究估计了美国成年人（≥18岁）的三种潜在加强策略所预防的感染和住院次数：使用Moderna的（1）许可的第一代单价疫苗mRNA-1273（祖先株）或（2）候选二价疫苗mRNA-1273.214（祖先BA.1关注变体[VOC]）从2022年9月开始，或（3）Moderna的BA.1的候选疫苗开发时间更新为VO7222/5。
未经评估：年龄分层，传输动态,易感暴露感染恢复(SEIR)模型，改编自以前的文献，用于估计随时间的感染；该模型包含由SEIR和疫苗接种状态定义的区室。决策树用于估计感染的临床后果。进行了校准，因此该模型跟踪大流行的实际过程到当前时间。
未经批准：用mRNA-1273接种疫苗（9月），mRNA-1273.214（9月），mRNA-1273.222(11月)预计将减少34%的感染，40%,18%,分别,住院率下降了42%，48%,25%,分别,超过6个月相比，没有助推器。围绕传播性的敏感性分析，疫苗覆盖率，掩蔽,并且逐渐减少表明，与其他疫苗相比，9月份mRNA-1273.214的增强可以预防更多的感染和住院病例。
UNASSIGNED：随着新变体的出现，影响传播估计和临床影响的病毒的关键特征也在演变，使参数估计变得困难。我们的分析表明，与定制的疫苗相比，用mRNA-1273.214加强在预防感染和住院方面比使用BA4/5亚变体在6个月内更有效。仅仅因为它可以提前2个月部署。我们得出的结论是，在获得更有效的BA4/5疫苗之前延迟加强是没有优势的；早期使用mRNA-1273.214的加强将防止大多数感染和住院。
未经评估：年龄分层，传输动态,易感暴露感染恢复(SEIR)模型，改编自以前的文献，用于估计随时间的感染；该模型包含由SEIR和疫苗接种状态定义的区室。决策树用于估计感染的临床后果。进行了校准，因此该模型跟踪大流行的实际过程到当前时间。
未经批准：用mRNA-1273接种疫苗（9月），mRNA-1273.214（9月），mRNA-1273.222(11月)预计将减少34%的感染，40%,18%,分别,住院率下降了42%，48%,25%,分别,超过6个月相比，没有助推器。围绕传播性的敏感性分析，疫苗覆盖率，掩蔽,并且逐渐减少表明，与其他疫苗相比，9月份mRNA-1273.214的增强可以预防更多的感染和住院病例。
UNASSIGNED：随着新变体的出现，影响传播估计和临床影响的病毒的关键特征也在演变，使参数估计变得困难。我们的分析表明，与定制的疫苗相比，用mRNA-1273.214加强在预防感染和住院方面比使用BA4/5亚变体在6个月内更有效。仅仅因为它可以提前2个月部署。我们得出的结论是，在获得更有效的BA4/5疫苗之前延迟加强是没有优势的；早期使用mRNA-1273.214的加强将防止大多数感染和住院。
