PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Aim: To compare hospital admissions across common respiratory tract infections (RTI) in 2017-21, and project possible hospital admissions for the RTIs among children aged 0-12 months and 1-5 years in 2022 and 2023. Methods: In 644 885 children aged 0-12 months and 1-5 years, we plotted the observed monthly number of RTI admissions [upper- and lower RTI, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19] from January 1st, 2017 until October 31st, 2021. We also plotted the number of RTI admissions with a need for respiratory support. We used the observed data to project four different scenarios of RTI admissions for the rest of 2021 until 2023, with different impacts on hospital wards: (1) \"Business as usual,\" (2) \"Continuous lockdown,\" (3) \"Children\'s immunity debt,\" and (4) \"Maternal and child immunity debt.\" Results: By October 31st, 2021, the number of simultaneous RTI admissions had exceeded the numbers usually observed at the typical season peak in January, i.e., ~900. Based on our observed data and assuming that children and their mothers (who transfer antibodies to the very youngest) have not been exposed to RTI over the last one and a half years, our scenarios suggest that hospitals should be prepared to handle two to three times as many RTI admissions, and two to three times as many RTI admissions requiring respiratory support among 0-5-year-olds as normal, from November 2021 to April 2022. Conclusion: Scenarios with immunity debt suggest that pediatric hospital wards and policy makers should plan for extended capacity.
摘要：
目的：比较2017-21年常见呼吸道感染（RTI）的住院人数，并预测2022年和2023年0-12个月和1-5岁儿童的RTI可能住院人数。方法：在644885名0-12个月和1-5岁儿童中，我们绘制了观察到的RTI入院的每月数量[较高和较低的RTI，流感,呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV），和COVID-19]从1月1日起，2017年10月31日，2021年。我们还绘制了需要呼吸支持的RTI入院人数。我们使用观察到的数据预测了2021年剩余时间到2023年RTI入院的四种不同情况，对医院病房的影响不同：（1）“一切照旧，\"(2)\"持续锁定,“(3)”儿童豁免债务，\"和(4)\"孕产妇和儿童豁免债务。结果：到10月31日，2021年，同时进行RTI的人数超过了通常在1月的典型季节高峰时观察到的人数，即，~900。根据我们观察到的数据，并假设孩子和他们的母亲（将抗体转移给最年轻的孩子）在过去的一年半中没有接触过RTI，我们的情景表明，医院应该准备好处理两到三倍的RTI入院，在0-5岁的儿童中，需要呼吸支持的RTI入院人数是正常人的两到三倍，从2021年11月到2022年4月。结论：免疫欠债的情况表明，儿科医院病房和政策制定者应计划扩大容量。
