PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious and has given way to a global pandemic. A present COVID-19 has high transmission rates worldwide, including in small Brazilian cities such as Ijuí. Located in the northwest part of the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and with a population of 83,475, Ijuí was selected as the site of a population-based survey involving 2,222 subjects, from April to June 2020. Subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and answered questions regarding social distance adherence (SDA), daily preventive routines (DPR), comorbidities, and sociodemographic characteristics. In parallel, the local government registered the official COVID-19 cases in Ijuí, as well as the mobile social distancing index (MSDI). In this study, we demonstrate that there was a decrease in the levels of SDA, DPR and MSDI before the beginning of COVID-19 community transmission in Ijuí. Furthermore, we provide predictions for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the city. We conclude that insufficient social distancing, as evidenced by different methods, may be related to the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in Ijuí. Our study predicts an approaching outbreak of COVID-19 in Ijuí through community spread, which could be avoided or attenuated with increased levels of social distancing among the population.
摘要：
2019年出现的冠状病毒病(COVID-19)具有高度传染性，已经让位于全球大流行。目前的COVID-19在全球范围内具有很高的传播率，包括在巴西的小城市，如Ijuí。Ijuí位于南里奥格兰德州（RS）的西北部，人口83,475，被选为基于人口的调查地点，涉及2,222名受试者，2020年4月至6月。测试受试者是否存在抗冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）的抗体，并回答有关社交距离依从性（SDA）的问题。日常预防程序（DPR），合并症,和社会人口特征。并行,当地政府在伊朱伊登记了官方的COVID-19病例，以及移动社交距离指数(MSDI)。在这项研究中,我们证明SDA水平有所下降，在伊朱伊开始COVID-19社区传播之前，DPR和MSDI。此外，我们提供了对COVID-19病例数的预测，住院治疗,和城市中的死亡。我们得出结论，社会距离不足，不同的方法证明了这一点，可能与伊朱伊的COVID-19病例迅速增加有关。我们的研究预测，伊朱伊将通过社区传播爆发COVID-19，随着人口之间社会距离的增加，这种情况可以避免或减弱。
