Abstract：
Records were examined for 242 individuals infected with Salmonella typhi or S. paratyphi identified in Birmingham between 1981 and 1988, with a total of 335 person years of follow-up. Of these cases 77 and 78 per cent respectively were followed beyond the point at which surveillance would have ceased under guidelines published by the American Public Health Association and by the Public Health Laboratory Service for England and Wales. Under these two sets of guidelines only seven (3.8 per cent) and eight (4.3 per cent) cases respectively had subsequent positive faecal or urine cultures over a median of 335 and 295 days of additional follow-up. After 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 prior consecutive negative sets of cultures obtained at weekly intervals the likelihood of the next set of cultures being positive was 26, 9, 5, 2.2, 2.4 and 0 per cent respectively. Only 38 (1.7 per cent) of 2184 follow-up urine cultures were positive; these results did not influence duration of follow-up. Only 26 (2.6 per cent) of 1002 contacts were infected; the yields of the first, second and third sets of cultures were 1.5, 0.6 and 0.5 per cent respectively.
摘要：
对1981年至1988年在伯明翰发现的242名感染伤寒沙门氏菌或副伤寒沙门氏菌的个体进行了检查，共进行了335人年的随访。根据美国公共卫生协会和英格兰和威尔士公共卫生实验室服务局公布的指导方针，在这些病例中，分别有77%和78%的病例被追踪到监测将停止的时间点。根据这两套指南，在额外随访的335天和295天的中位数中，分别只有7例（3.8％）和8例（4.3％）的粪便或尿液培养阳性。在以每周间隔获得0、1、2、3、4和5个先前的连续阴性培养物组之后，下一组培养物为阳性的可能性分别为26、9、5、2.2、2.4和0％。2184例随访尿液培养中只有38例（1.7％）呈阳性；这些结果不影响随访时间。1002名接触者中只有26人(2.6%)被感染;第一名的产量,第二和第三组文化分别为1.5%、0.6%和0.5%。
