背景:这项研究对美国17年期间在分开的高速公路上发生的错误驾驶(WWD)致命撞车事故进行了全面分析,从2004年到2020年。这项研究旨在揭示趋势,分布模式,以及导致这些致命事故的因素。数据从国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)死亡分析报告系统(FARS)数据库中提取。
方法:使用描述性统计分析来揭示一般的碰撞特征,同时通过检查WWD致命事故的年度发生情况来更新趋势。该研究进一步采用二项逻辑回归来计算赔率比,确定重要的促成因素。这些因素包括时间变量,碰撞特性,和驾驶员特征。赔率比揭示了WWD致命车祸与其他致命车祸之间的关系,允许识别驱动WWD事件的关键要素。
结果:平均而言,每年发生302次WWD致命事故,在研究期间导致6,953人死亡。WWD致命事故的频率保持相对稳定,随着时间的推移略有增加。根据模型,变量包括星期几,一天的时间,月,照明条件,天气条件,道路纵断面,碰撞类型,乘客在场,司机年龄,性别,许可证状态,发现驾驶员受伤的严重程度对WWD致命事故的发生有重大影响。一个重要的发现是,诸如下垂曲线或山顶之类的道路轮廓会增加WWD致命撞车的可能性。
结论:这项研究的结果有助于更好地理解高速公路上的WWD致命事故,从而帮助制定预防和缓解战略。
BACKGROUND: This study presents a comprehensive analysis of wrong-way driving (WWD) fatal crashes on divided highways in the United States over a 17-year period, from 2004 to 2020. The study aims to uncover
trends, distribution patterns, and factors contributing to these fatal crashes. Data were extracted from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database.
METHODS: Descriptive statistical analysis was used to reveal general crash characteristics, while
trends were updated through an examination of the annual occurrence of WWD fatal crashes. The study further employed binomial logistic regression to compute odds ratios, identifying significant contributing factors. These factors encompassed temporal variables, crash characteristics, and driver characteristics. The odds ratios shed light on the relationship between WWD fatal crashes and other fatal crashes, allowing for the identification of key elements that drive WWD incidents.
RESULTS: On average, 302 WWD fatal crashes occurred annually, resulting in 6,953 fatalities during the study period. The frequency of WWD fatal crashes remained relatively stable, with a slight increase over time. According to the model, variables include day of week, time of day, month, lighting conditions, weather conditions, roadway profile, collision type, passenger presence, driver age, gender, license status, and driver injury severity were found to significantly impact the occurrence of WWD fatal crashes. One significant finding is that road profiles like sag curves or hillcrests can increase the likelihood of WWD fatal crashes.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study contribute to an improved understanding of WWD fatal crashes on divided highways, thereby aiding in the development of strategies for prevention and mitigation.