自2017年我国提出建设国家公园体系以来,建立了自然保护区规划体系,以国家公园为主体,正在全国范围内积极推广。其中,科学的生态空间管控区划(ESMCZ)是维护国家公园生态稳定的重要环节。如何对国家公园进行分区,如何提高分区精度,已成为国家公园面临的新课题。因此,本研究以大熊猫国家公园为研究区域,以生态系统服务和土地利用/覆被变化为研究视角,集成了InVEST模型,PLUS模型和贝叶斯信念网络(BBN)模型,构建了一套基于栅格尺度的生态空间管控分区(ESMCZ)空间分区框架,将研究区域划分为严格的保护区,生态缓冲区,生态控制区和受控开发区。结果表明:(1)研究区水源涵养量呈增加趋势,2005-2020年土壤保持和碳储量,生境质量指数普遍较高。研究区生态系统服务的空间异质性显著,单因子对生态系统服务的影响最为明显。(2)在自然开发情景和生态保护情景下,不同土地利用的面积差异较大。在这两种情况下,耕地面积,草地面积和未利用土地面积相对于2020年减少,林地面积,水面积和建设用地面积相对于2020年增加。(3)大熊猫国家公园被划分为严格的保护区,生态缓冲区,生态控制区和控制开发区,其中严格的保护区面积最大,生态系统背景条件最好,控制开发区面积最小,生态系统背景条件最差。(4)生态空间管控区划(ESMCZ)框架为大熊猫国家公园等自然保护区的二次区划提供了更精细的方法,这对大熊猫国家公园生态保护实施分区和分类管理具有一定的参考价值。
Since China proposed building a national park system in 2017, the establishment of a planning system for nature reserves, with national parks as the main body, is being actively promoted around the country. Among them, scientific ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) is an important link in maintaining the ecological stability of national parks. How to zone national parks and how to improve the precision of zoning has become a new task for national parks. Therefore, this study takes the Giant Panda National Park as the study area, takes ecosystem services and land use/cover change as the research perspective, integrates the InVEST model, PLUS model and bayes belief network (BBN) model, and builds a set of ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) spatial zoning framework based on raster scale, dividing the study area into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and controlled development zone. The results showed that: (1) The study area showed an increasing trend in water conservation, soil conservation and carbon storage from 2005 to 2020, and the habitat quality index was generally high. The spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in the study area was significant, and the effect of a single factor on ecosystem services was most pronounced. (2) Large variation in area for different land uses under natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios. In both scenarios, the area of cultivated land, the area of grassland and the area of unused land decrease relative to 2020, and the area of forested land, the area of water and the area of constructed land increase relative to 2020. (3) The Giant Panda National Park is divided into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and control development zone, of which the strictly protected zone have the largest area and the best ecosystem background condition, and the control development zone have the smallest area and the worst ecosystem background condition. (4) The ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) framework provides a more refined method for the secondary zoning of nature reserves such as the Giant Panda National Park, which is valuable for the implementation of zoning and categorization management for ecological conservation in the Giant Panda National Park.