目的:分析海湾合作委员会国家的生育率趋势及其与社会经济因素的关系,以便政策制定者可以将研究结果用于未来的医疗保健计划。
方法:总人口,粗死亡率,预期寿命,识字率,人类发展指数(HDI)女性就业,失业率,城市化,人均国内生产总值(GDP)和通货膨胀被选为TFR趋势的可能预测因子。这些数据是为2021年全球疾病负担研究和世界银行等其他官方数据库收集的,联合国开发计划署和海湾合作委员会(GCC)6个国家的数据世界。计算了标准偏差和百分比变化的平均值,以评估1980-2021年TFR和所有其他变量的趋势。
结果:与1980年相比,2021年所有6个国家的生育率都有所下降。下降幅度最大的是阿拉伯联合酋长国(75.5%),最低的是科威特(60.9%)。从1980年到2021年,总人口,预期寿命,HDI,识字率,GDP,城市化,所有海湾合作委员会国家的女性劳动力都有所增加。总人口,预期寿命,城市化,女性劳动力,GDP和HDI与TFR呈显著负相关(p<0.01)。巴林识字率与TFR呈显著负相关,科威特,沙特阿拉伯,卡塔尔。
结论:GCC国家的TFR正在下降。看似合理的原因包括倾向于推迟婚姻和过高的生活费用。决策者需要对这些趋势和关联进行评估,以便他们确定干预的优先领域,分配资源并制定相应的发展计划,以确保该地区的战略进展。
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the fertility rate trends in the GCC countries and their association with socioeconomic factors so that policymakers may use the study findings for future healthcare plans.
METHODS: Total population, crude death rate, life expectancy, literacy rate, human development index (HDI), female employment, unemployment rate, urbanisation, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and inflation were chosen as possible predictors of TFR trends. The data were collected for the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study and other official databases such as the World Bank, the United Nations Development Program and Our World in Data for the 6 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Mean with standard deviation and percentage change was calculated to assess trends of TFR and all other variables from 1980-2021.
RESULTS: The fertility rate declined in all 6 countries in 2021 compared to 1980. The highest decline was found in the United Arab Emirates (75.5%), while the lowest was in Kuwait (60.9%). From 1980-2021, total population, life expectancy, HDI, literacy rate, GDP, urbanisation, and female labor force increased in all GCC countries. The total population, life expectancy, urbanisation, female labor force, GDP and HDI were negatively and significantly correlated with TFR (p<0.01). The literacy rate showed a negative and significant correlation with TFR in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
CONCLUSIONS: The TFR is declining in GCC countries. The plausible causes include the inclination towards postponement of marriages and excessive costs of living. These trends and associations need to be evaluated by policymakers so that they identify priority areas for interventions, allocate resources and formulate developmental plans accordingly to ensure strategic progress of the region.