目的:分析前列腺疾病负担的变化,睾丸,1990年至2019年中国男性泌尿和生殖系统肿瘤中的肾癌和膀胱癌,并预测未来趋势。
方法:我们检索了发病率的数据,前列腺的死亡率和疾病负担,睾丸,来自2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库的1990年至2019年中国男性的肾癌和膀胱癌。使用Joinpoint回归模型,我们分析了疾病负担的变化趋势,并用ARIMA模型预测肿瘤的患病率。
结果:从1990年到2019年,前列腺的标准化发病率和患病率,睾丸,中国男性的肾癌和膀胱癌呈上升趋势,睾丸癌的发病率最高,分别为326.79%和1070.93%。PCa的疾病负担最高,标准化发病率,2019年患病率和死亡率分别为17.34/100000,117.65/100000和7.79/100000.肾癌的标准化死亡率和残疾调整生命年(DALY)分别增加了103.59%和103.17%。发病率最高,死亡率和前列腺损伤,2019年在90-94岁的男性中发现了肾癌和膀胱癌,前列腺患病率最高,70-89岁的肾癌和膀胱癌,在25-49岁的人群中,睾丸癌的患病率最高。ARIMA模型预测表明,前列腺的标准化发病率,睾丸,从2020年到2029年,中国男性的肾癌和膀胱癌持续上升。
结论:前列腺的疾病负担,睾丸,中国男性的肾癌和膀胱癌正在上升,到2029年,他们的标准化发病率将更高,年轻男性的疾病负担将显著增加,这表明需要更加重视年轻男性泌尿生殖系统肿瘤的预防和治疗。
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.
METHODS: We retrieved the data on the incidence, mortality and disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden, and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men, and those of testis cancer increased most significantly, by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively. The disease burden of PCa was the highest, with standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100 000, 117.65/100 000 and 7.79/100 000 respectively in 2019. The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17% respectively. The highest incidence, mortality and DALY of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90-94 years old males, the highest prevalence rates of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in the 70-89-year-olds, and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25-49-year-olds. ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.
CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise, and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029, with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men, which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.