{Reference Type}: Journal Article
{Title}: [Assessment of the lagging effect of vegetation response and loss probability in the Pearl River basin under drought stress].
{Author}: Gong ZJ;Lei Y;Zhong LL;Wu CH;
{Journal}: Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao
{Volume}: 35
{Issue}: 4
{Year}: 2024 Apr 18
暂无{DOI}: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202404.026
{Abstract}: We quantified the lag time of vegetation response to drought in the Pearl River basin (PRB) based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and constructed a vegetation loss probability model under drought stress based on the Bayesian theory and two-dimensional joint distribution. We further quantitatively evaluated the spatial variations of loss probability of four vegetation types (evergreen broadleaf forest, mixed forest, grassland, and cropland) under different drought intensities. The results showed that the drought risk in eastern West River, the upper reaches of North River and East River, and southern Pearl River Delta was obviously higher than that in other regions during 1982-2020. The response time of vegetation to drought in high-altitude areas in the upper reaches of PRB (mostly<3 month) was generally shorter than that in low altitude areas (>8 month). Drought exacerbated the probability of vegetation loss, with higher vulnerability of mixed forest than the other three vegetation types. The loss probability of vegetation was lower in northwestern PRB than that in central PRB.<BR>基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和归一化植被指数(NDVI),在网格尺度上定量识别珠江流域植被对干旱响应的滞后时间;基于贝叶斯理论和二维联合分布构建了干旱胁迫下植被损失的条件概率模型,定量评估了不同干旱情景下4种植被类型(常绿阔叶林、混交林、草地、耕地)的损失风险的空间分异性。结果表明: 1982—2020年间,西江流域东部、北江和东江流域上游以及珠三角南部地区的干旱风险明显高于研究区的其他区域;上游高海拔地区植被对干旱的响应时间(大多<3个月)通常小于低海拔地区(>8个月);干旱加剧了植被的脆弱性,其中,混交林在不同干旱强度下的损失概率大于其他3种植被类型,表现出更高的脆弱性;流域西北部植被损失概率低于流域中部地区。.