%0 Journal Article
%T A mathematical simulation model to determine the optimal endoscopic screening strategy for detection of H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms.
%A Ishibashi F
%A Okusa K
%A Tokai Y
%A Hirasawa T
%A Kawakami T
%A Mochida K
%A Yanai Y
%A Yokoi C
%A Hayashi Y
%A Ozawa SI
%A Uraushihara K
%A Minato Y
%A Nakanishi H
%A Ueyama H
%A Kataoka M
%A Toyama Y
%A Mizokami Y
%A Suzuki S
%J Gastric Cancer
%V 0
%N 0
%D 2024 Jun 27
%M 38937306
%F 7.701
%R 10.1007/s10120-024-01525-2
%X <B>BACKGROUND: </B>The effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs).<BR><B>METHODS: </B>EGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50 years) and intervals (2/5/10 years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes.<BR><B>RESULTS: </B>Data of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45 years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20 mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%.<BR><B>CONCLUSIONS: </B>A mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5 years starting at 45 years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.