PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Dementia prevalence is expected to increase as populations grow and age. Therefore, additional resources will be needed to meet the global demand for care for Alzheimer\'s disease and related dementias (ADRD).
UNASSIGNED: Estimate global and country-level health care spending attributable to ADRD and the cost of informal care for people living with ADRD.
UNASSIGNED: We gathered data from three systematic literature reviews and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to impute estimates for the many countries without underlying data. We projected future costs to 2050 based on past trends in costs, diagnosis rates, and institutionalization rate.
UNASSIGNED: We estimated that in 2019, the direct health care spending attributable to ADRD across 204 countries reached $260.6 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 131.6-420.4) and the cost of informal ADRD care was $354.1 billion (95% UI 190.0-544.1). On average, informal care represents 57% (95% UI 38-75%) of the total cost of care. We estimated that direct health care spending attributable to ADRD will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI 0.6-3.3) in 2050, or 9.4% (95% UI 3.9-19.6%) of projected health spending worldwide. We estimated the cost of informal care will reach $0.9 trillion (95% UI 0.3-1.7) in 2050.
UNASSIGNED: These cost estimates underscore the magnitude of resources needed to ensure sufficient resources for people living with ADRD and highlight the role that informal care plays in provision of their care. Incorporating informal care cost estimates is critical to capture the social cost of ADRD.
UNASSIGNED: Estimate global and country-level health care spending attributable to ADRD and the cost of informal care for people living with ADRD.
UNASSIGNED: We gathered data from three systematic literature reviews and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to impute estimates for the many countries without underlying data. We projected future costs to 2050 based on past trends in costs, diagnosis rates, and institutionalization rate.
UNASSIGNED: We estimated that in 2019, the direct health care spending attributable to ADRD across 204 countries reached $260.6 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 131.6-420.4) and the cost of informal ADRD care was $354.1 billion (95% UI 190.0-544.1). On average, informal care represents 57% (95% UI 38-75%) of the total cost of care. We estimated that direct health care spending attributable to ADRD will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI 0.6-3.3) in 2050, or 9.4% (95% UI 3.9-19.6%) of projected health spending worldwide. We estimated the cost of informal care will reach $0.9 trillion (95% UI 0.3-1.7) in 2050.
UNASSIGNED: These cost estimates underscore the magnitude of resources needed to ensure sufficient resources for people living with ADRD and highlight the role that informal care plays in provision of their care. Incorporating informal care cost estimates is critical to capture the social cost of ADRD.
摘要：
■随着人口的增长和年龄的增长，痴呆症的患病率预计会增加。因此,将需要额外的资源来满足全球对阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆(ADRD)的治疗需求.
■估计可归因于ADRD的全球和国家级医疗保健支出以及ADRD患者的非正式护理费用。
■我们从三个系统文献综述和2019年全球疾病负担研究中收集了数据。我们使用时空高斯过程回归来估算没有基础数据的许多国家的估计值。我们根据过去的成本趋势预测了到2050年的未来成本，诊断率，和制度化率。
■我们估计，2019年，204个国家的ADRD直接医疗保健支出达到2606亿美元（95%不确定区间[UI]131.6-420.4），非正式ADRD护理的成本为3541亿美元（95%UI190.0-544.1）。平均而言,非正式护理占护理总费用的57%(95%UI38-75%).我们估计，到2050年，ADRD的直接医疗保健支出将达到1.6万亿美元（95％UI0.6-3.3），占全球预计医疗支出的9.4％（95％UI3.9-19.6％）。我们估计，到2050年，非正式护理的成本将达到0.9万亿美元（95％UI0.3-1.7）。
■这些成本估算强调了确保为患有ADRD的人提供足够资源所需的资源规模，并强调了非正式护理在提供护理方面的作用。纳入非正式护理成本估算对于获取ADRD的社会成本至关重要。
■估计可归因于ADRD的全球和国家级医疗保健支出以及ADRD患者的非正式护理费用。
■我们从三个系统文献综述和2019年全球疾病负担研究中收集了数据。我们使用时空高斯过程回归来估算没有基础数据的许多国家的估计值。我们根据过去的成本趋势预测了到2050年的未来成本，诊断率，和制度化率。
■我们估计，2019年，204个国家的ADRD直接医疗保健支出达到2606亿美元（95%不确定区间[UI]131.6-420.4），非正式ADRD护理的成本为3541亿美元（95%UI190.0-544.1）。平均而言,非正式护理占护理总费用的57%(95%UI38-75%).我们估计，到2050年，ADRD的直接医疗保健支出将达到1.6万亿美元（95％UI0.6-3.3），占全球预计医疗支出的9.4％（95％UI3.9-19.6％）。我们估计，到2050年，非正式护理的成本将达到0.9万亿美元（95％UI0.3-1.7）。
■这些成本估算强调了确保为患有ADRD的人提供足够资源所需的资源规模，并强调了非正式护理在提供护理方面的作用。纳入非正式护理成本估算对于获取ADRD的社会成本至关重要。
