Abstract：
Introduction history, including propagule pressure and residence time, has been proposed as a primary driver of biological invasions. However, it is unclear whether introduction history increases the likelihood that a species will be invasive or only the likelihood that it will be established. Using a dataset of non-native species historically available as ornamental plants in the conterminous United States, we investigated how introduction history relates to these stages of invasion. Introduction history was highly significant and a strong predictor of establishment, but only marginally significant and a poor predictor of invasive success. Propagule pressure predicted establishment better than residence time, with species likely to be established if they were introduced to only eight locations. These findings suggest that ongoing plant introductions will lead to widespread establishment but may not directly increase invasive success. Instead, other characteristics, like plant traits and local scale processes, may better predict whether a species becomes invasive.
摘要：
介绍历史，包括繁殖压力和停留时间，被认为是生物入侵的主要驱动力。然而,目前尚不清楚引入历史是否会增加物种入侵的可能性，还是仅增加物种入侵的可能性。使用历史上在美国作为观赏植物的非本地物种的数据集，我们调查了引入历史与入侵的这些阶段之间的关系。介绍历史非常重要，是建立的有力预测指标，但仅具有微不足道的意义，并且对侵入性成功的预测能力较差。传播压力预测建立优于停留时间，如果仅将其引入八个地点，则可能会建立物种。这些发现表明，持续的植物引进将导致广泛的建立，但可能不会直接增加侵入性的成功。相反，其他特点,比如植物性状和局部尺度过程，可以更好地预测一个物种是否会入侵。
