Abstract：
Dental age assessment based on evaluating dental mineralization status is one of the most common methods used in forensic practice. The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of age diagnostics and provide reference data from the Syrian population for forensic application. After several selection steps, a total of 280 orthopantomograms (OPGs) from 140 males and 140 females from the Syrian population divided into 14 age groups between 12 and 25 years were analysed. Based on Demirjian\'s classification system, the mineralization stages of third molars (18, 28, 38 and 48) as well as lower second molars (37 and 47) were evaluated. Statistical investigations and evaluations were carried out to estimate the marginal probabilities of the subjects having attained ages 14 and 18 by generalized estimating equation models. Our results show that no significant differences can be revealed in the mineralization status with respect to jaw side and sex. In the Syrian population, third molars showing mineralization stage G provide evidence of reaching the age of 14 years with the highest standard of proof (\"beyond reasonable doubt\"). A completed mineralization in lower second molars (stage H) provides very high marginal probabilities (more than 90%) of the subjects having attained age 14 years. Nevertheless, this cannot exclude an age under 14 years. For the age threshold of 18 years, third molars showing incomplete root development (G dental stage or lower) are associated with a low probability (less than 40%) of the subject having reached 18 years of age. A person\'s probability of having attained 18 years of age is very high (82- 95%) when the roots of third molars are fully developed (stage H). Nevertheless, third molars at stage H do not conclusively exclude an age under 18 years.
摘要：
基于评估牙齿矿化状态的牙齿年龄评估是法医实践中最常用的方法之一。这项研究的目的是提高年龄诊断的准确性，并为法医学应用提供叙利亚人口的参考数据。经过几个选择步骤，共分析了来自叙利亚人口的140名男性和140名女性的280个正像图(OPGs),分为12至25岁的14个年龄组.基于Demirjian的分类系统，评估了第三磨牙（18、28、38和48）以及下第二磨牙（37和47）的矿化阶段。进行了统计学调查和评估，以通过广义估计方程模型估计年龄为14和18的受试者的边际概率。我们的结果表明，在颌侧和性别方面，矿化状态没有显着差异。在叙利亚人口中，显示矿化阶段G的第三磨牙提供了达到14岁的证据，具有最高的证据标准（“超出合理怀疑”）。较低的第二磨牙（H期）中的完全矿化为年龄达到14岁的受试者提供了很高的边际概率（超过90％）。然而，这不能排除14岁以下的年龄。对于18岁的年龄门槛，显示不完全牙根发育(G牙期或更低)的第三磨牙与受试者达到18岁的低概率(小于40%)相关。当第三磨牙的根部完全发育（H期）时，一个人达到18岁的可能性非常高（82-95％）。然而，H阶段的第三磨牙并不能最终排除18岁以下的年龄。
