Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: For the first time in human history, older adults will outnumber children and a substantial and growing proportion will live alone and lack one or more nuclear family tie. Such unprecedented shifts require a reevaluation of existing models of \"successful aging\", particularly in terms of long-term care policies.
METHODS: This paper draws on country-level data from multiple publicly available sources (e.g., World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Our World in Data, and the World Values Survey) to examine cross-national patterns of development, health, demography, resources and policies, and cultural values in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
RESULTS: Although there exists substantial heterogeneity across countries, country-level patterns illustrate the economic privilege of living alone and the dominance of \"successful aging\" opportunities in high income countries. Cultural values about family reflect standard patterns of economic development, yet friendship emerges as a particularly consistent global value. At the country-level, living alone and health are associated in higher income countries with lower within-country inequality.
CONCLUSIONS: Aging \"alone\" is a risk factor in some contexts, yet a marker of privilege in others. Models of \"successful aging\" are largely unobtainable in lower income countries or high inequality countries, and therefore require a thorough incorporation of global realities, or final abandonment in favor of more nuanced structural perspectives. Long-term care policies that assume the presence of family will yield increasing risk over time across all global contexts and represent a key vulnerability in the future of healthy aging policy.
METHODS: This paper draws on country-level data from multiple publicly available sources (e.g., World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Our World in Data, and the World Values Survey) to examine cross-national patterns of development, health, demography, resources and policies, and cultural values in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
RESULTS: Although there exists substantial heterogeneity across countries, country-level patterns illustrate the economic privilege of living alone and the dominance of \"successful aging\" opportunities in high income countries. Cultural values about family reflect standard patterns of economic development, yet friendship emerges as a particularly consistent global value. At the country-level, living alone and health are associated in higher income countries with lower within-country inequality.
CONCLUSIONS: Aging \"alone\" is a risk factor in some contexts, yet a marker of privilege in others. Models of \"successful aging\" are largely unobtainable in lower income countries or high inequality countries, and therefore require a thorough incorporation of global realities, or final abandonment in favor of more nuanced structural perspectives. Long-term care policies that assume the presence of family will yield increasing risk over time across all global contexts and represent a key vulnerability in the future of healthy aging policy.
摘要：
目标：人类历史上第一次，老年人的数量将超过儿童，而且越来越多的人将独自生活，缺乏一个或多个核心家庭纽带。这种前所未有的转变需要重新评估现有的“成功老化”模型，特别是在长期护理政策方面。
方法：本文借鉴了来自多个公开来源的国家级数据（例如，世界银行,经济合作与发展组织，我们的数据世界,和世界价值观调查)来研究跨国发展模式，健康,人口统计学，资源和政策，和文化价值观低，middle-,和高收入国家。
结果：尽管各国之间存在很大的异质性，国家层面的模式说明了独自生活的经济特权和“成功老龄化”机会在高收入国家的主导地位。关于家庭的文化价值观反映了经济发展的标准模式，然而，友谊成为一种特别一致的全球价值。在国家一级，在收入较高的国家，独居和健康与国内不平等程度较低相关。
结论：在某些情况下，老化“单独”是一个风险因素，也是他人特权的标志。“成功老龄化”的模式在低收入国家或高度不平等国家在很大程度上是无法获得的，因此，需要彻底结合全球现实，或最终放弃，转而支持更细微的结构观点。假设有家庭存在的长期护理政策将在所有全球背景下随着时间的推移产生越来越大的风险，并且是未来健康老龄化政策的一个关键脆弱性。
方法：本文借鉴了来自多个公开来源的国家级数据（例如，世界银行,经济合作与发展组织，我们的数据世界,和世界价值观调查)来研究跨国发展模式，健康,人口统计学，资源和政策，和文化价值观低，middle-,和高收入国家。
结果：尽管各国之间存在很大的异质性，国家层面的模式说明了独自生活的经济特权和“成功老龄化”机会在高收入国家的主导地位。关于家庭的文化价值观反映了经济发展的标准模式，然而，友谊成为一种特别一致的全球价值。在国家一级，在收入较高的国家，独居和健康与国内不平等程度较低相关。
结论：在某些情况下，老化“单独”是一个风险因素，也是他人特权的标志。“成功老龄化”的模式在低收入国家或高度不平等国家在很大程度上是无法获得的，因此，需要彻底结合全球现实，或最终放弃，转而支持更细微的结构观点。假设有家庭存在的长期护理政策将在所有全球背景下随着时间的推移产生越来越大的风险，并且是未来健康老龄化政策的一个关键脆弱性。
