Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the burden of kidney dysfunction (KD), assess socioeconomic inequalities, and project trends in the future.
METHODS: Data on deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to analyze the temporal trend by the annual percentage change (APC). The slope index and concentration index were employed to evaluate cross-country disparities. The future trend was predicted using an age-period-cohort analysis.
RESULTS: In the past three decades, the death numbers of KD increased from 1,571,720 to 3,161,552, DALYs from 42,090,331 to 76,486,945, YLDs from 5,003,267 to 11,282,484, and YLLs from 37,087,065 to 65,204,461, respectively. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of deaths, DALYs, and YLLs exhibited a declining trend. The ASR of YLDs increased until 2017, then decreased. The slope index and concentration index for DALYs increased from 248.1 to 351.9 and from 40.70 to 57.8. In the future, the ASR of deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs will remain stable, while their numbers will continue to rise, except for YLLs.
CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of KD remained serious. Tailored interventions should be developed based on national contexts.
METHODS: Data on deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to analyze the temporal trend by the annual percentage change (APC). The slope index and concentration index were employed to evaluate cross-country disparities. The future trend was predicted using an age-period-cohort analysis.
RESULTS: In the past three decades, the death numbers of KD increased from 1,571,720 to 3,161,552, DALYs from 42,090,331 to 76,486,945, YLDs from 5,003,267 to 11,282,484, and YLLs from 37,087,065 to 65,204,461, respectively. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of deaths, DALYs, and YLLs exhibited a declining trend. The ASR of YLDs increased until 2017, then decreased. The slope index and concentration index for DALYs increased from 248.1 to 351.9 and from 40.70 to 57.8. In the future, the ASR of deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs will remain stable, while their numbers will continue to rise, except for YLLs.
CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of KD remained serious. Tailored interventions should be developed based on national contexts.
摘要：
目的：本研究旨在评估肾功能不全（KD）的负担，评估社会经济不平等，以及未来的项目趋势。
方法：死亡数据，残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，残疾生活年(YLDs)，和多年的生命损失（YLL）来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。利用Joinpoint回归模型通过年度百分比变化（APC）分析时间趋势。采用斜率指数和集中度指数来评估跨国差异。使用年龄期队列分析预测未来趋势。
结果：在过去的三十年中，KD的死亡人数分别从1,571,720增加到3,161,552，DALYs从42,090,331增加到76,486,945，YLDs从5,003,267增加到11,282,484，YLLs从37,087,065增加到65,204,461。年龄标准化死亡率（ASR），DALYs,YLL呈下降趋势。YLD的ASR在2017年之前增加，然后下降。DALY的斜率指数和浓度指数从248.1增加到351.9，从40.70增加到57.8。在未来,死亡的ASR，DALYs,YLDs,YLL将保持稳定，虽然他们的人数会继续上升，除了YLL.
结论：KD的疾病负担依然严重。应根据国家情况制定量身定制的干预措施。
方法：死亡数据，残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，残疾生活年(YLDs)，和多年的生命损失（YLL）来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。利用Joinpoint回归模型通过年度百分比变化（APC）分析时间趋势。采用斜率指数和集中度指数来评估跨国差异。使用年龄期队列分析预测未来趋势。
结果：在过去的三十年中，KD的死亡人数分别从1,571,720增加到3,161,552，DALYs从42,090,331增加到76,486,945，YLDs从5,003,267增加到11,282,484，YLLs从37,087,065增加到65,204,461。年龄标准化死亡率（ASR），DALYs,YLL呈下降趋势。YLD的ASR在2017年之前增加，然后下降。DALY的斜率指数和浓度指数从248.1增加到351.9，从40.70增加到57.8。在未来,死亡的ASR，DALYs,YLDs,YLL将保持稳定，虽然他们的人数会继续上升，除了YLL.
结论：KD的疾病负担依然严重。应根据国家情况制定量身定制的干预措施。
