Abstract：
Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are important nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation but are threatened by degradation. Effective BCE restoration requires strategic planning and site selection to optimise outcomes. We developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision support tool to identify suitable areas for BCE restoration along the 2512 km-long coastline of Victoria, Australia. High-resolution spatial data on BCE distribution, coastal geomorphology, hydrodynamics, and land tenure were integrated into a flexible spatial model that distinguishes between passive and active restoration suitability. The tool was applied to identify high-priority locations for mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass restoration across different scenarios. Results indicate substantial potential for BCE restoration in Victoria, with 33,253 ha of suitable area identified, mostly (>97%) on public land, which aligned with the selection criteria used in the tool. Restoration opportunities are concentrated in bays and estuaries where historical losses have been significant. The mapped outputs provide a decision-support framework for regional restoration planning, while the tool itself can be adapted to other geographies. By integrating multiple spatial criteria and distinguishing between passive and active restoration, our approach offers a new method for targeting BCE restoration and informing resource allocation. The identified restoration potential will also require collaboration with coastal managers and communities, and consideration of socio-economic factors. With further refinements, such as incorporating multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, GIS-based tools can help catalyse strategic blue carbon investments and contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation goals at different spatial scales. This study highlights the value of spatial identification for BCE restoration and provides a transferable framework for other regions.
摘要：
蓝碳生态系统（BCEs），比如红树林，盐沼,和海草，是缓解和适应气候变化的重要基于自然的解决方案，但面临退化的威胁。有效的BCE恢复需要战略规划和选址以优化结果。我们开发了基于地理信息系统（GIS）的多准则决策支持工具，以确定沿维多利亚州2512公里长的海岸线进行BCE恢复的合适区域，澳大利亚。关于BCE分布的高分辨率空间数据，沿海地貌,流体力学,和土地保有权被整合到一个灵活的空间模型，区分被动和主动恢复适宜性。该工具用于确定红树林的高优先级位置，Saltmarsh,和不同场景的海草修复。结果表明，维多利亚州恢复BCE的潜力很大，确定了33,253公顷的合适面积，大部分(>97%)在公共土地上，与工具中使用的选择标准对齐。恢复机会集中在历史损失巨大的海湾和河口。映射的输出为区域恢复规划提供了决策支持框架，而工具本身可以适应其他地区。通过整合多个空间标准并区分被动和主动恢复，我们的方法提供了一种针对BCE恢复和通知资源分配的新方法。确定的恢复潜力还需要与沿海管理人员和社区合作，并考虑社会经济因素。随着进一步的改进，例如结合多准则决策分析技术，基于GIS的工具可以帮助促进战略性蓝碳投资，并有助于在不同空间尺度上实现减缓和适应气候变化的目标。这项研究强调了空间识别对BCE恢复的价值，并为其他地区提供了可转移的框架。
