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Abstract：
Various indicators exist to assess the threat of chronic diseases. This paper presents new ones to evaluate the role of aging and non-aging factors for predicting threats from major chronic diseases. Age at zero mortality (AM0) and age at average mortality (AMa) can be calculated by regressing age and mortality (the intercept indicates AM0, the slope indicates the observed slope and r indicates random non-aging factors). A regression equation can be created using AMa at the age of 72 and mortality at the age of 82; thus, the expected slope can be obtained for the aging factor without considering non-aging factors. It is possible to distinguish between aging and non-aging factors using the observed and expected slopes, which should be multiplied by r to produce an index of aging (IA). The lower the AM0, AMa or IA of a disease is, the greater the threat it poses to a population. The AM0 and IA were calculated using data from China (2004 and 2019) for various diseases [cancer, heart disease (HD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)]. We found the severity of threat was highest for cancer, CVD, other chronic diseases, HD and COPD in descending order in 2019. The results suggest that changes in threats may be related to socioeconomic development. Cancer was found to be the greatest threat to younger age groups, with IA<0.5, suggesting that non-aging risk factors may play an important role in cancers. Conversely, aging may play an important role in other chronic diseases, including HD, CVD, and COPD. Compared to 2004, the AM0 of cancer showed the greatest change. In conclusions, the different indicators explain different aspects of the problem and it would be beneficial to conduct in-depth research on the theoretical basis for the association of threats of disease with socioeconomic development in order to develop prevention and control strategies.
摘要：
存在各种指标来评估慢性病的威胁。本文提出了评估衰老和非衰老因素在预测主要慢性疾病威胁中的作用的新方法。零死亡率年龄（AM0）和平均死亡率年龄（AMa）可以通过回归年龄和死亡率（截距表示AM0，斜率表示观察到的斜率，r表示随机非老化因素）来计算。可以使用72岁的AMa和82岁的死亡率创建回归方程；因此，在不考虑非老化因素的情况下，可以得到老化因素的期望斜率。可以使用观察到的和预期的斜率来区分老化和非老化因素，应乘以r以产生老化指数(IA)。疾病的AM0、AMa或IA越低，它对人口构成的威胁就越大。AM0和IA是使用来自中国（2004年和2019年）的各种疾病的数据计算的[癌症，心脏病(HD),脑血管疾病（CVD），和慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）]。我们发现癌症威胁的严重程度最高，CVD,其他慢性疾病,2019年HD和COPD按降序排列。结果表明，威胁的变化可能与社会经济发展有关。癌症被发现是对年轻年龄组的最大威胁，IA<0.5，表明非衰老危险因素可能在癌症中起重要作用。相反，衰老可能在其他慢性疾病中起重要作用，包括HD,CVD,和COPD。与2004年相比，癌症的AM0变化最大。在结论中，不同的指标解释了问题的不同方面，对疾病威胁与社会经济发展关联的理论基础进行深入研究，以制定预防和控制策略将是有益的。
