PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Hantaviruses are zoonotic agents responsible for causing Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas, with Brazil ranking first in number of confirmed HCPS cases in South America. In this study, we simulate the monthly spread of highly lethal hantavirus in natural hosts by conjugating a Kermack-McCormick SIR model with a cellular automata model (CA), therefore simultaneously evaluating both in-cell and between-cell infection dynamics in host populations, using recently compiled data on main host species abundances and confirmed deaths by hantavirus infection. For both host species, our models predict an increase in the area of infection, with 22 municipalities where no cases have been confirmed to date expected to have at least one case in the next decade, and a reduction in infection in 11 municipalities. Our findings support existing research and reveal new areas where hantavirus is likely to spread within recognized epicenters. Highlighting spatial-temporal trends and potential expansion, we emphasize the increased risk due to pervasive habitat fragmentation and agricultural expansion. Consistent prevention efforts and One Health actions are crucial, especially in newly identified high-risk municipalities.
摘要：
汉坦病毒是在美洲引起汉坦病毒心肺综合症（HCPS）的人畜共患因子，巴西在南美确诊的HCPS病例数中排名第一。在这项研究中,我们通过将Kermack-McCormickSIR模型与细胞自动机模型（CA）结合来模拟高致死汉坦病毒在自然宿主中的每月传播，因此，同时评估宿主群体中的细胞内和细胞间感染动力学，使用最近汇编的主要宿主物种丰度和确认的汉坦病毒感染死亡数据。对于两种宿主物种来说，我们的模型预测感染面积会增加，迄今为止尚未确认病例的22个城市预计在未来十年内至少有一例病例，11个城市的感染率下降。我们的发现支持现有的研究，并揭示了汉坦病毒可能在公认的震中传播的新领域。突出时空趋势和潜在扩展，我们强调，由于普遍的栖息地碎片化和农业扩张，风险增加。持续的预防工作和“一个健康”行动至关重要，特别是在新确定的高风险城市。
