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Abstract：
Chinese farmers, especially small ones, always sell their food at low prices during harvest season rather than storing it for a better price. Based on a theoretical framework of expected utility, this paper examines the mechanism by which risk perception affects farmers\' timing choices of food sales and the role played by risk preference, utilizing data from the 2019 China Family Database and the China Household Finance Survey of farmers in six provinces of the main wheat-producing regions. This study shows that farmers with a high risk perception are more likely to choose current sales compared with intertemporal sales. The channel and mechanism analysis finds that increased risk perception leads to risky returns from intertemporal sales lower than certain returns from current sales in utility comparisons. It is further found that risk preference has a substitution effect on risk perception in farmers\' intertemporal food sales.
摘要：
中国农民,尤其是小的，在收获季节总是以低价出售他们的食物，而不是以更好的价格储存。基于期望效用的理论框架，本文研究了风险感知影响农民食品销售时机选择的机制以及风险偏好所起的作用，利用2019年中国家庭数据库和中国家庭金融调查的数据，对小麦主产区的六个省份的农户进行了调查。这项研究表明，与跨期销售相比，具有高风险认知的农民更有可能选择当前销售。渠道和机制分析发现，在效用比较中，风险感知的增加导致跨期销售的风险收益低于当前销售的某些收益。进一步发现，风险偏好对农民跨期食品销售中的风险感知具有替代作用。
