PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Ross River virus (RRV), Australia\'s most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change.
UNASSIGNED: As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series.
UNASSIGNED: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention.
UNASSIGNED: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
UNASSIGNED: As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series.
UNASSIGNED: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention.
UNASSIGNED: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
摘要：
■罗斯河病毒（RRV），澳大利亚通过蚊虫叮咬传播的最应报告的媒介传播疾病，由于气温上升，传播增加。量化由于温度升高（当前和未来）引起的RRV感染负担对于在气候变化的背景下制定预防策略至关重要。
■由于与RRV相关的死亡在澳大利亚很少见，我们利用了2003年至2018年澳大利亚健康与福利研究所(AIHW)疾病负担数据库中与RRV感染数据相关的残疾生存年(YLDs).我们从先前的荟萃分析中获得了RRV感染每升高1°C的相对风险。分别计算每个柯本-盖革气候区的暴露分布，并与理论最小风险暴露分布进行比较，以计算基准期（2003-2018年）温度升高引起的RRV负担。在两种温室气体排放情景下，预计2030年代和2050年代的未来负担(代表性集中途径，RCP4.5和RCP8.5)，两种适应方案，和不同的人口增长系列。
■在基线期间（2003-2018年），平均温度的升高导致了澳大利亚观察到的RRV负担的35.8（±0.5）YLDs（19.1％）。归因于RRV负担的平均温度因气候区和辖区而异。在这两种RCP情况下，尽管有适应的情况，但预计的RRV负担估计在未来会增加。到2050年，不适应,RRV负担在RCP4.5下可以达到45.8YLD，在RCP8.5下可以达到51.1YLD。实施10%的适应策略可以将RRV负担降低到41.8和46.4YLD，分别。
■这些发现为政策决策和指导资源分配提供了科学依据，以减轻未来的RRV负担。目前的调查结果强调，需要制定针对特定地点的适应战略，以控制和预防对气候敏感的疾病。
■澳大利亚研究委员会发现计划。
■由于与RRV相关的死亡在澳大利亚很少见，我们利用了2003年至2018年澳大利亚健康与福利研究所(AIHW)疾病负担数据库中与RRV感染数据相关的残疾生存年(YLDs).我们从先前的荟萃分析中获得了RRV感染每升高1°C的相对风险。分别计算每个柯本-盖革气候区的暴露分布，并与理论最小风险暴露分布进行比较，以计算基准期（2003-2018年）温度升高引起的RRV负担。在两种温室气体排放情景下，预计2030年代和2050年代的未来负担(代表性集中途径，RCP4.5和RCP8.5)，两种适应方案，和不同的人口增长系列。
■在基线期间（2003-2018年），平均温度的升高导致了澳大利亚观察到的RRV负担的35.8（±0.5）YLDs（19.1％）。归因于RRV负担的平均温度因气候区和辖区而异。在这两种RCP情况下，尽管有适应的情况，但预计的RRV负担估计在未来会增加。到2050年，不适应,RRV负担在RCP4.5下可以达到45.8YLD，在RCP8.5下可以达到51.1YLD。实施10%的适应策略可以将RRV负担降低到41.8和46.4YLD，分别。
■这些发现为政策决策和指导资源分配提供了科学依据，以减轻未来的RRV负担。目前的调查结果强调，需要制定针对特定地点的适应战略，以控制和预防对气候敏感的疾病。
■澳大利亚研究委员会发现计划。
