PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The Abbay River Basin faces the looming threat of extreme climate events, including prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall patterns, which can significantly affect soil health and fertility. This study aimed to explore the influence of extreme climate conditions on soil pH and exchangeable aluminum, aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices in Ethiopia. The Africa Soil Information Service (ASIS) provided datasets on soil pH and exchangeable aluminum. The European Copernicus Climate Change Data Store was used to download historical and future datasets of extreme climatic indices from 1980 to 2010 and 2015-2050, respectively. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model ensemble was used to predict future climate impacts under three shared socioeconomic scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.3, and SSP5-8.5. Data extraction, quality control, and clustering were conducted before analysis, and the model was validated for its accuracy and reliability in predicting soil parameter changes. An artificial neural network model was utilized to predict the effects of extreme climate indices on soil pH and exchangeable aluminum concentrations. The model was designed to accurately and reliably predict changes in soil parameters. This study compared the changes in soil pH and aluminum concentrations using paired t tests. The model\'s diagnostic results indicated a significant impact of extreme climate scenarios on soil pH and exchangeable aluminum. Extreme climate factors such as heavy precipitation and cooler night time temperatures significantly contribute to soil acidification and an increase in aluminum concentration. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios, soil pH levels are expected to increase by 8.38 % and 3.79 %, respectively. These changes in soil pH are expected to have significant impacts on the exchangeable aluminum content in the soil, with increases of 37 % and 5.38 %, respectively, under the same emission scenarios. However, the SSP5.8 scenario predicted a 45 % increase in exchangeable aluminum and a 9.36 % decrease in soil pH. Therefore, this study significantly enhances our understanding of the influence of climate change on soil health. The development of strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on agriculture in the region must consider the effects of extreme climate indices.
摘要：
Abbay河流域面临着迫在眉睫的极端气候事件的威胁，包括长期干旱和不稳定的降雨模式，会显著影响土壤健康和肥力。本研究旨在探讨极端气候条件对土壤pH值和交换性铝的影响,旨在促进埃塞俄比亚的可持续农业实践。非洲土壤信息服务（ASIS）提供了有关土壤pH值和可交换铝的数据集。欧洲哥白尼气候变化数据存储用于分别下载1980年至2010年和2015年至2050年的历史和未来极端气候指数数据集。耦合模型比较项目第6阶段模型集合用于预测三种共同的社会经济情景下的未来气候影响：SSP1-2.6，SSP2-4.3和SSP5-8.5。数据提取,质量控制,在分析之前进行聚类，并验证了该模型在预测土壤参数变化方面的准确性和可靠性。利用人工神经网络模型来预测极端气候指数对土壤pH和可交换铝浓度的影响。该模型旨在准确可靠地预测土壤参数的变化。本研究使用配对t检验比较了土壤pH和铝浓度的变化。模型的诊断结果表明，极端气候情景对土壤pH值和可交换铝有显著影响。极端气候因素，例如强降水和夜间温度较低，会导致土壤酸化和铝浓度增加。在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5排放方案下，土壤pH值预计分别增加8.38%和3.79%,分别。土壤pH值的这些变化预计会对土壤中的可交换铝含量产生重大影响，分别增长37%和5.38%，分别,在相同的排放情景下。然而,SSP5.8情景预测可交换铝增加45％，土壤pH降低9.36％。因此,这项研究大大增强了我们对气候变化对土壤健康影响的理解。制定减轻气候变化对该区域农业影响的战略必须考虑极端气候指数的影响。
