Abstract：
To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982-2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019-2043.
Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data.
Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043.
Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method).
The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years.
Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.
Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data.
Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043.
Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method).
The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years.
Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.
摘要：
目的：研究1982-2018年多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的变化，并估计其发病率。死亡率,和2019-2043年的患病率。
方法：基于人口的统计建模研究；基于澳大利亚健康与福利研究所多发性骨髓瘤发病率的分析和预测，死亡率,和生存数据。
方法：澳大利亚，1982-2018年（历史数据）和到2043年的预测。
方法：多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的变化，1982年至2018年，通过联合点回归分析确定（年龄标准化至2021年澳大利亚人口）；基于年龄时期队列模型预测至2043年的发病率；多发性骨髓瘤的估计5年和30年患病率（改良计数法）。
结果：多发性骨髓瘤的发病率在1982-2018年期间增加（例如，年度百分比变化[APC]，2006-2018年，1.9%；95%置信区间[CI]，1.7-2.2%)，但死亡率在1990-2018年期间有所下降(APC，-0.4%；95%CI，-0.5%至-0.2%）。2018-2043年，年龄标准化发病率预计将增加14.9%，从2018年的8.7例增加到2043年的10.0例（95%CI，9.4-10.7）；死亡率预计将下降27.5%，从4.0到2.9（95%CI，2.6-3.3）每10万人口死亡。每年新诊断为多发性骨髓瘤的人数估计增加89.2%,从2018年的2120人到2043年的4012人;多发性骨髓瘤的死亡人数预计将增加31.7%，从979到1289。预计在最初诊断后30年内患有多发性骨髓瘤的人数将增加163％，从2018年的10288人增加到2043年的27093人，其中包括前五年诊断的13019人（48.1％）。
结论：尽管预计死亡率将继续下降，未来25年澳大利亚多发性骨髓瘤的发病率和患病率预计会增加，这表明在预防和早期发现研究方面的投资，以及长期治疗和护理的计划，是需要的。
方法：基于人口的统计建模研究；基于澳大利亚健康与福利研究所多发性骨髓瘤发病率的分析和预测，死亡率,和生存数据。
方法：澳大利亚，1982-2018年（历史数据）和到2043年的预测。
方法：多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的变化，1982年至2018年，通过联合点回归分析确定（年龄标准化至2021年澳大利亚人口）；基于年龄时期队列模型预测至2043年的发病率；多发性骨髓瘤的估计5年和30年患病率（改良计数法）。
结果：多发性骨髓瘤的发病率在1982-2018年期间增加（例如，年度百分比变化[APC]，2006-2018年，1.9%；95%置信区间[CI]，1.7-2.2%)，但死亡率在1990-2018年期间有所下降(APC，-0.4%；95%CI，-0.5%至-0.2%）。2018-2043年，年龄标准化发病率预计将增加14.9%，从2018年的8.7例增加到2043年的10.0例（95%CI，9.4-10.7）；死亡率预计将下降27.5%，从4.0到2.9（95%CI，2.6-3.3）每10万人口死亡。每年新诊断为多发性骨髓瘤的人数估计增加89.2%,从2018年的2120人到2043年的4012人;多发性骨髓瘤的死亡人数预计将增加31.7%，从979到1289。预计在最初诊断后30年内患有多发性骨髓瘤的人数将增加163％，从2018年的10288人增加到2043年的27093人，其中包括前五年诊断的13019人（48.1％）。
结论：尽管预计死亡率将继续下降，未来25年澳大利亚多发性骨髓瘤的发病率和患病率预计会增加，这表明在预防和早期发现研究方面的投资，以及长期治疗和护理的计划，是需要的。
