PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species\' survival in the Balkans.
摘要：
三趾啄木鸟Picoidestridactylus是巴尔干半岛上一种罕见且濒临灭绝的啄木鸟。尽管在北欧分布广泛，它在巴尔干半岛的分布仅限于高海拔森林栖息地，它代表冰川遗迹。评估气候变化对其分布的影响对于改善巴尔干半岛这种专业物种的保护和未来生存至关重要。我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）来确定其过去的潜在分布（最后一个间冰期和最后一个冰川最大值）。present,和未来（2050年和2070年）。我们的结果表明，该物种在最后一次冰川最大值中分布最大，此后，其分布收缩到持续存在适当环境的地区（高海拔）。巴尔干半岛最大的领土有不适合该物种居住的环境，而高度适宜的栖息地在适宜栖息地总面积中的份额最小。所有未来的模型都显示与当前时期相比，合适栖息地的面积有所减少，表明全球变暖对物种的分布有负面影响。我们建议保护活动必须在更大程度上确保物种在巴尔干地区的生存。
