Abstract：
The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China\'s carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country\'s livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4-6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e-1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China.
摘要：
减少畜牧业生产中的甲烷(CH4)排放对中国的碳中和至关重要。在这里，我们使用四次大规模的国家牲畜温室气体清单调查，建立了该国1990年至2020年牲畜CH4排放的高时空分辨率数据集。我们估计2020年的CH4排放量为14.1±2.0Mt，直到2030年将增加13%，尽管在过去30年中，每公斤动物蛋白的CH4强度下降了55%。大约一半的排放来自中国所有县的13％。到2030年，CH4的技术减排潜力预计为36±8％（4.4-6.9MtCH4），减少食物损失和浪费可以减少额外的1.6MtCH4。总的来说,大多数CH4减排可以通过在碳价格低于100tCO2e-1美元的情况下提高动物生产力和泻湖储存覆盖率来实现，比中国的牲畜一氧化二氮减排更具成本效益。
