Abstract：
Epidemiological studies to better understand wheat blast (WB) spatial and temporal patterns were conducted in three field environments in Bolivia between 2019 and 2020. The temporal dynamics of wheat leaf blast (WLB) and spike blast (WSB) were best described by the logistic model compared to the Gompertz and exponential models. The non-linear logistic infection rates (rL) were higher under defined inoculation in experiments two and three than under undefined inoculation in experiment one, and they were also higher for WSB than for WLB. The onset of WLB began with a spatial cluster pattern according to autocorrelation analysis and Moran\'s Index (I) values, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation until the last sampling time. The WSB onset did not start with a spatial cluster pattern; instead, it was detected later until the last sampling date across experiments, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation. Maximum severity (Kmax) was 1.0 for WSB, and less than 1.0 for WLB. Aggregation of WLB and WSB was higher for defined than for undefined inoculation. The directionality of hotspot development was similar for both WLB and WSB, mainly occurring concentrically for defined inoculation. Our results show no evidence of synchronized development but suggest a temporal and spatial progression of disease symptoms on wheat leaves and spikes. Thus, we recommend that monitoring and management of WB should be considered during early growth stages of wheat planted in areas of high risk.
摘要：
在2019年至2020年之间，在玻利维亚的三个田间环境中进行了流行病学研究，以更好地了解小麦瘟疫（WB）的时空模式。与Gompertz和指数模型相比，逻辑模型最好地描述了小麦叶片胚（WLB）和穗胚（WSB）的时间动态。在实验二和实验三的定义接种下，非线性逻辑感染率（rL）高于实验一的未定义接种下，WSB也高于WLB。根据自相关分析和Moran指数(I)值，WLB的开始始于空间聚类模式，在最后一次采样时间之前，与未定义的接种相比，定义的严重程度更高，发病更早。WSB的发作不是以空间集群模式开始的；相反，它后来被检测到，直到实验的最后一次采样日期，与未定义的接种相比，定义的严重程度更高，发病更早。WSB的最大严重程度（Kmax）为1.0，WLB小于1.0。定义的WLB和WSB的聚集高于未定义的接种。WLB和WSB的热点开发方向相似，主要集中发生在定义的接种。我们的结果表明没有同步发育的证据，但表明小麦叶片和穗上疾病症状的时间和空间进展。因此，我们建议在高风险地区种植的小麦的早期生长阶段应考虑对WB的监测和管理。
