PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The Persian fallow deer or Mesopotamian fallow Deer (Dama mesopotamica, Brook 1875), a species of significant ecological importance, had faced the threat of extinction in Iran. One conservation strategy involved the translocation of Persian deer to enclosed areas across Iran, where they were afforded protection from external threats and provided with essential care by human caretakers. While human caretakers diligently attend to their needs and mitigate external threats, climate variables may now become critical factors affecting population dynamics in enclosed areas. This study aims to assess the similarity in climate niches between the original area (Dez and Karkheh) of the Persian deer species and 11 newly enclosed areas. To achieve this, we employed climate data and ecological niche modeling (ENM) techniques to assess the variations in climate among 12 areas. We utilized the environmental equivalency test to determine whether the environmental spaces of area pairs exhibit significant differences and whether these spaces are interchangeable. Extrapolation analyses were also constructed in the next steps to explore climatic conditions in original fallow deer habitats that are non-analogous to those in other parts of Iran. Our results reveal significant disparities in climate conditions between the original and all translocated areas. Based on observations of population growth in specific enclosed areas where translocated deer populations have thrived, we hypothesize that the species may demonstrate a non-equilibrium distribution in Iran. Consequently, these new areas could potentially be regarded as part of the species\' potential climate niche. Extrapolation analysis showed that for a significant portion of Iran, extrapolation predictions are highly uncertain and potentially unreliable for the translocation of Persian fallow deer. However, the primary objective of translocation efforts remains the establishment of self-sustaining populations of Persian deer capable of thriving in natural areas beyond enclosed areas, thus ensuring their long-term survival and contributing to preservation efforts. Evaluating the success of newly translocated species requires additional time, with varying levels of success observed. In cases where the growth rate of the species in certain enclosed areas falls below expectations, it is prudent to consider climate variables that may contribute to population declines. Furthermore, for future translocations, we recommend selecting areas with climate similarities to regions where the species has demonstrated growth rates.
摘要：
波斯小鹿或美索不达米亚小鹿（DamaMesopotamica，布鲁克1875），具有重要生态意义的物种，在伊朗面临灭绝的威胁。一种保护策略涉及将波斯鹿转移到伊朗各地的封闭地区，在那里，他们得到了免受外部威胁的保护，并得到了人类看护者的基本护理。当人类看护者努力满足他们的需求并减轻外部威胁时，气候变量现在可能成为影响封闭地区人口动态的关键因素。这项研究旨在评估波斯鹿种的原始区域（Dez和Karkheh）与11个新封闭区域之间的气候生态位相似性。为了实现这一点，我们使用气候数据和生态位建模（ENM）技术来评估12个地区之间的气候变化。我们利用环境等效性测试来确定区域对的环境空间是否表现出显着差异，以及这些空间是否可以互换。在接下来的步骤中，还进行了外推分析，以探索与伊朗其他地区不相似的原始休耕鹿栖息地的气候条件。我们的结果揭示了原始地区和所有易位地区之间的气候条件存在显着差异。根据对特定封闭地区人口增长的观察，在这些地区，易位的鹿种群蓬勃发展，我们假设该物种可能在伊朗表现出非平衡分布。因此,这些新的区域可能被视为该物种潜在气候生态位的一部分。外推分析表明，对于伊朗的很大一部分，外推预测对于波斯休养鹿的易位是高度不确定的，并且可能不可靠。然而,迁移努力的主要目标仍然是建立能够在封闭区域以外的自然区域繁荣发展的自我维持的波斯鹿种群，从而确保它们的长期生存，并有助于保护工作。评估新易位物种的成功需要额外的时间，观察到不同程度的成功。在某些封闭地区的物种生长速度低于预期的情况下，谨慎考虑可能导致人口减少的气候变量。此外，为了未来的易位，我们建议选择与该物种表现出增长率的地区气候相似的地区。
