Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to provide an updated estimate of age- and sex-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional and national levels, and to forecast the global burden of disease attributed to high BMI from 2020 to 2035.
METHODS: We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rate (per 100 000 population), percentage change and population attributable fraction from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to examine the disease burden attributable to high BMI. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020-2035.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI increased by 148% and 155.86% for men, and by 111.67% and 121.78% for women, respectively. In 2019, high BMI directly accounted for 8.52% [95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 0.05, 0.12] of all-cause deaths and 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08) of global DALYs. The highest death rates were observed in men aged 65-69 and women aged 75-79. The highest DALY rates were observed in the age group of 60-64 for both sexes. In 2019, the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates were observed in the Central Asia region [163.15 (95% UI 107.72, 223.58) per 100 000 people] and the Oceania region [4643.33 (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6) per 100 000 people], respectively. Fiji [319.08 (95% UI 213.77, 444.96) per 100 000 people] and Kiribati [10 000.58 (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2) per 100 000 people] had the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates, respectively. In 2019, the highest age-standardized rates of high BMI-related deaths and DALYs were observed in the middle-high socio-demographic index quintile and in the middle socio-demographic index quintile. The age-standardized deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI are projected to increase in both sexes from 2020 to 2035. The death rates are projected to rise from 62.79 to 64.31 per 100 000 people, while the DALY rates are projected to rise from 1946 to 2099.54 per 100 000 people.
CONCLUSIONS: High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.
METHODS: We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rate (per 100 000 population), percentage change and population attributable fraction from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to examine the disease burden attributable to high BMI. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020-2035.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI increased by 148% and 155.86% for men, and by 111.67% and 121.78% for women, respectively. In 2019, high BMI directly accounted for 8.52% [95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 0.05, 0.12] of all-cause deaths and 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08) of global DALYs. The highest death rates were observed in men aged 65-69 and women aged 75-79. The highest DALY rates were observed in the age group of 60-64 for both sexes. In 2019, the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates were observed in the Central Asia region [163.15 (95% UI 107.72, 223.58) per 100 000 people] and the Oceania region [4643.33 (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6) per 100 000 people], respectively. Fiji [319.08 (95% UI 213.77, 444.96) per 100 000 people] and Kiribati [10 000.58 (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2) per 100 000 people] had the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates, respectively. In 2019, the highest age-standardized rates of high BMI-related deaths and DALYs were observed in the middle-high socio-demographic index quintile and in the middle socio-demographic index quintile. The age-standardized deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI are projected to increase in both sexes from 2020 to 2035. The death rates are projected to rise from 62.79 to 64.31 per 100 000 people, while the DALY rates are projected to rise from 1946 to 2099.54 per 100 000 people.
CONCLUSIONS: High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.
摘要：
目标：我们的研究旨在提供1990年至2019年全球与高体重指数（BMI）相关的年龄和性别特定死亡和残疾调整寿命年（DALYs）的最新估计。区域和国家层面，并预测2020年至2035年高BMI导致的全球疾病负担。
方法：我们使用了死亡人数的数据，DALYs,年龄标准化率(每10万人口)，2019年全球疾病负担研究（GBD2019）的百分比变化和人群归因分数，以检查高BMI引起的疾病负担。我们进一步应用了自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型来预测2020-2035年期间的疾病负担。
结果：从1990年到2019年，男性高BMI导致的死亡和DALYs分别增加了148％和155.86％，女性分别占111.67%和121.78%，分别。2019年，高BMI直接占全因死亡人数的8.52％[95％不确定度区间（UI）0.05，0.12]和全球DALYs的5.89％（95％UI0.04，0.08）。死亡率最高的是65-69岁的男性和75-79岁的女性。男女在60-64岁年龄段的DALY发生率最高。2019年，中亚地区[163.15（95％UI107.72，223.58）/10万人]和大洋洲地区[4643.33（95％UI2835.66，6902.6）/10万人]的年龄标准化死亡率和DALY率最高。分别。斐济[319.08（95％UI213.77，444.96）/100000人]和基里巴斯[10000.58（95％UI6266.55，14159.2）/100000人]的年龄标准化死亡率和DALY率最高，分别。2019年，在中高社会人口统计学指数五分位数和中等社会人口统计学指数五分位数中，高BMI相关死亡和DALYs的年龄标准化率最高。从2020年到2035年，高BMI导致的年龄标准化死亡和DALY率预计将在男女中增加。死亡率预计将从每10万人62.79上升到64.31，而DALY率预计将从1946年上升到每10万人2099.54。
结论：高BMI显著增加了全球疾病负担。预计到2035年，由于高BMI导致的死亡率和死亡率上升，凸显了解决肥胖对公共卫生影响的迫切需要。我们的研究为政策制定者提供了最新和全面的信息。
方法：我们使用了死亡人数的数据，DALYs,年龄标准化率(每10万人口)，2019年全球疾病负担研究（GBD2019）的百分比变化和人群归因分数，以检查高BMI引起的疾病负担。我们进一步应用了自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型来预测2020-2035年期间的疾病负担。
结果：从1990年到2019年，男性高BMI导致的死亡和DALYs分别增加了148％和155.86％，女性分别占111.67%和121.78%，分别。2019年，高BMI直接占全因死亡人数的8.52％[95％不确定度区间（UI）0.05，0.12]和全球DALYs的5.89％（95％UI0.04，0.08）。死亡率最高的是65-69岁的男性和75-79岁的女性。男女在60-64岁年龄段的DALY发生率最高。2019年，中亚地区[163.15（95％UI107.72，223.58）/10万人]和大洋洲地区[4643.33（95％UI2835.66，6902.6）/10万人]的年龄标准化死亡率和DALY率最高。分别。斐济[319.08（95％UI213.77，444.96）/100000人]和基里巴斯[10000.58（95％UI6266.55，14159.2）/100000人]的年龄标准化死亡率和DALY率最高，分别。2019年，在中高社会人口统计学指数五分位数和中等社会人口统计学指数五分位数中，高BMI相关死亡和DALYs的年龄标准化率最高。从2020年到2035年，高BMI导致的年龄标准化死亡和DALY率预计将在男女中增加。死亡率预计将从每10万人62.79上升到64.31，而DALY率预计将从1946年上升到每10万人2099.54。
结论：高BMI显著增加了全球疾病负担。预计到2035年，由于高BMI导致的死亡率和死亡率上升，凸显了解决肥胖对公共卫生影响的迫切需要。我们的研究为政策制定者提供了最新和全面的信息。
