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Abstract：
Exploring the factors influencing Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) and understanding its dynamics is crucial for planning and management. This understanding plays a pivotal role in supporting Africa\'s food security efforts to achieve various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Utilizing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on data from the FAO website, spanning from 2000 to 2019, informative components are derived for dynamic spatio-temporal modeling of Africa\'s FSN Given the dynamic and evolving nature of the factors impacting FSN, despite numerous efforts to understand and mitigate food insecurity, existing models often fail to capture this dynamic nature. This study employs a Bayesian dynamic spatio-temporal approach to explore the interconnected dynamics of food security and its components in Africa. The results reveal a consistent pattern of elevated FSN levels, showcasing notable stability in the initial and middle-to-late stages, followed by a significant acceleration in the late stage of the study period. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia exhibited particularly noteworthy high levels of FSN dynamicity. In particular, child care factors and undernourishment factors showed significant dynamicity on FSN. This insight suggests establishing regional task forces or forums for coordinated responses to FSN challenges based on dynamicity patterns to prevent or mitigate the impact of potential food security crises.
摘要：
探索影响粮食安全和营养（FSN）的因素并了解其动态对于计划和管理至关重要。这种理解在支持非洲粮食安全努力以实现各种可持续发展目标（SDG）方面发挥着关键作用。利用粮农组织网站上的数据进行主成分分析(PCA)，从2000年到2019年，考虑到影响FSN的因素的动态和演变性质，得出了非洲FSN动态时空建模的信息成分，尽管为理解和减轻粮食不安全做出了许多努力，现有的模型往往无法捕捉到这种动态特性。这项研究采用贝叶斯动态时空方法来探索非洲粮食安全及其组成部分的相互联系的动态。结果揭示了FSN水平升高的一致模式，在初期和中后期展示了显着的稳定性，随后是研究后期的显着加速。刚果民主共和国和埃塞俄比亚表现出特别值得注意的高水平的FSN动态性。特别是,儿童保健因素和营养不良因素对FSN表现出显著的动态性。这种见解建议建立区域工作队或论坛，以基于动态性模式对FSN挑战进行协调应对，以防止或减轻潜在的粮食安全危机的影响。
