Abstract：
China\'s swift socioeconomic development has led to extremely severe ambient PM2.5 levels, the associated negative health outcomes of which include premature death. However, a comprehensive explanation of the socioeconomic mechanism contributing to PM2.5-related premature deaths has not yet to be fully elucidated through long-term spatial panel data. Here, we employed a global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and the system generalized method of moments (Sys-GMM) to examine the primary determinants contributing to premature deaths in Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We found that in the research period, premature deaths in China increased by 46 %, reaching 1.87 million, a figure that decreased somewhat after the COVID-19 outbreak. 62 thousand premature deaths were avoided in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019, primarily due to the decline in PM2.5 concentrations. Premature deaths have increased across all provinces, particularly in North China, and a discernible spatial agglomeration effect was observed, highlighting effects on nearby provinces. The findings also underscored the significance of determinants such as urbanization, import and export trade, and energy consumption in exacerbating premature deaths, while energy intensity exerted a mitigating influence. Importantly, a U-shaped relationship between premature deaths and economic development was unveiled for the first time, implying the need for vigilance regarding potential health impact deterioration and the implementation of countermeasures as the per capita GDP increases in China. Our findings deserve attention from policymakers as they shed fresh insights into atmospheric control and Health China action.
摘要：
中国快速的社会经济发展导致了极其严重的环境PM2.5水平，相关的负面健康结果包括过早死亡。然而,尚未通过长期空间面板数据充分阐明导致PM2.5相关过早死亡的社会经济机制。这里,我们采用了全球暴露死亡率模型(GEMM)和系统广义矩方法(Sys-GMM),研究了2000~2021年中国各省导致过早死亡的主要决定因素.我们发现在研究期间,中国的过早死亡人数增加了46%,达到187万，这一数字在COVID-19爆发后有所下降。与2019年相比，2020年和2021年避免了6.2万过早死亡，这主要是由于PM2.5浓度下降。所有省份的过早死亡人数都有所增加，特别是在华北，并观察到明显的空间聚集效应，突出对附近省份的影响。调查结果还强调了城市化等决定因素的重要性，进出口贸易,以及加剧过早死亡的能源消耗，而能量强度产生了缓解的影响。重要的是,首次揭示了过早死亡与经济发展之间的U型关系，这意味着需要警惕潜在的健康影响恶化和实施对策随着人均GDP的增加在中国。我们的发现值得政策制定者关注，因为他们对大气控制和中国健康行动提供了新的见解。
