Abstract：
System Dynamics (SD) models have been used to understand complex, multi-faceted dengue transmission dynamics, but a gap persists between research and actionable public health tools for decision-making. Spain is an at-risk country of imported dengue outbreaks, but only qualitative assessments are available to guide public health action and control. We propose a modular SD model combining temperature-dependent vector population, transmission parameters, and epidemiological interactions to simulate outbreaks from imported cases accounting for heterogeneous local climate-related transmission patterns. Under our assumptions, 15 provinces sustain vector populations capable of generating outbreaks from imported cases, with heterogeneous risk profiles regarding seasonality, magnitude and risk window shifting from late Spring to early Autum. Results being relative to given vector-to-human populations allow flexibility when translating outcomes between geographic scales. The model and the framework are meant to serve public health by incorporating transmission dynamics and quantitative-qualitative input to the evidence-based decision-making chain. It is a flexible tool that can easily adapt to changing contexts, parametrizations and epidemiological settings thanks to the modular approach.
摘要：
系统动力学(SD)模型已被用来理解复杂的，多方位登革热传播动力学，但是研究和可操作的公共卫生决策工具之间仍然存在差距。西班牙是进口登革热疫情的高危国家,但只有定性评估才能指导公共卫生行动和控制。我们提出了一个模块化的SD模型，结合了温度相关的矢量种群，传输参数,和流行病学相互作用，以模拟输入病例的暴发，从而解释当地与气候相关的传播模式的异质性。根据我们的假设,15个省维持着能够从进口病例中引发疫情的病媒种群，关于季节性的不同风险特征，幅度和风险窗口从春末转移到奥图姆早期。相对于给定的媒介到人类群体的结果允许在地理尺度之间转换结果时的灵活性。该模型和框架旨在通过将传播动力学和定量-定性输入纳入基于证据的决策链，为公共卫生服务。它是一种灵活的工具，可以轻松适应不断变化的环境，参数化和流行病学设置归功于模块化方法。
