Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic had direct and indirect effects on oral and pharyngeal cancer (OPC) mortality due to high COVID-19 mortality risk among cancer patients, and to the COVID-19 response that caused treatment delays and reduced routine visits. This study investigated the excess OPC mortality in Europe during the early pandemic years.
METHODS: Mortality and population data were gathered from the Eurostat database. The 2011-2019 mortality rates were used to estimate the 2020-2021 expected rates through joinpoint trend analysis. The excess mortality rates (observed minus expected mortality) with 95% confidence intervals (95 CIs) were assessed.
RESULTS: Statistically significant negative excess age-standardized and crude (age strata <65 and ≥65 years) OPC mortality rates in males and females, in the European Union (EU, 27 countries) and Europe were reported. The estimated OPC missing deaths in EU were 831 (95 CI, 630-985) and 1240 (95 CI, 1039-1394) in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with differences between sexes, age strata, and countries. The OPC deaths in the EU and Europe were 3.6% and 3.5% lower than expected.
CONCLUSIONS: Missing OPC deaths reported in Europe in 2020-2021 could be explained by changes in death certification of OPC patients who developed COVID-19, rather than a real OPC mortality decline.
METHODS: Mortality and population data were gathered from the Eurostat database. The 2011-2019 mortality rates were used to estimate the 2020-2021 expected rates through joinpoint trend analysis. The excess mortality rates (observed minus expected mortality) with 95% confidence intervals (95 CIs) were assessed.
RESULTS: Statistically significant negative excess age-standardized and crude (age strata <65 and ≥65 years) OPC mortality rates in males and females, in the European Union (EU, 27 countries) and Europe were reported. The estimated OPC missing deaths in EU were 831 (95 CI, 630-985) and 1240 (95 CI, 1039-1394) in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with differences between sexes, age strata, and countries. The OPC deaths in the EU and Europe were 3.6% and 3.5% lower than expected.
CONCLUSIONS: Missing OPC deaths reported in Europe in 2020-2021 could be explained by changes in death certification of OPC patients who developed COVID-19, rather than a real OPC mortality decline.
摘要：
目的：由于癌症患者的COVID-19死亡风险较高，COVID-19大流行对口腔和咽喉癌（OPC）死亡率有直接和间接影响，以及导致治疗延误和常规访视减少的COVID-19反应。这项研究调查了欧洲大流行初期的OPC死亡率。
方法：死亡率和人口数据来自欧盟统计局数据库。2011-2019年的死亡率用于通过连接点趋势分析估算2020-2021年的预期死亡率。评估了95%置信区间(95CIs)的超额死亡率(观察到的死亡率减去预期死亡率)。
结果：男性和女性的年龄标准化和粗（年龄<65岁和≥65岁）OPC死亡率具有统计学意义，在欧洲联盟(欧盟，报告了27个国家)和欧洲。2020年和2021年，欧盟估计OPC失踪死亡人数分别为831人（95CI，630-985）和1240人（95CI，1039-1394）。两性之间的差异，年龄阶层，和国家。欧盟和欧洲的OPC死亡人数分别比预期低3.6%和3.5%。
结论：2020-2021年欧洲报告的OPC死亡缺失可以解释为患COVID-19的OPC患者死亡证明的变化，而不是真正的OPC死亡率下降。
方法：死亡率和人口数据来自欧盟统计局数据库。2011-2019年的死亡率用于通过连接点趋势分析估算2020-2021年的预期死亡率。评估了95%置信区间(95CIs)的超额死亡率(观察到的死亡率减去预期死亡率)。
结果：男性和女性的年龄标准化和粗（年龄<65岁和≥65岁）OPC死亡率具有统计学意义，在欧洲联盟(欧盟，报告了27个国家)和欧洲。2020年和2021年，欧盟估计OPC失踪死亡人数分别为831人（95CI，630-985）和1240人（95CI，1039-1394）。两性之间的差异，年龄阶层，和国家。欧盟和欧洲的OPC死亡人数分别比预期低3.6%和3.5%。
结论：2020-2021年欧洲报告的OPC死亡缺失可以解释为患COVID-19的OPC患者死亡证明的变化，而不是真正的OPC死亡率下降。
