Abstract：
Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.
摘要：
由于人为气候变化，随着变暖加剧，预计物种将迁移到更高的纬度，因为已经调整了生理机制以在特定温度下最大程度地适应。然而,文献表明，在气候变暖的情况下，住宅可以充当热避难所，保护海洋生态系统的多样性。这项研究旨在根据墨西哥官方文件（>200种）的热生态位预测气候变暖对商业和非商业鱼类的影响，以观察它们是否可以作为潜在的热避难所。目前（2000-2014）和代表性浓度途径（6.0和8.5）情景（2040-2050和2090-2100）已被考虑用于这项工作。当前和未来的适用性模式，物种分布,丰富,用最小体积椭球作为算法计算营业额。这项研究的结果突出表明，除了向高纬度地区迁移，上升流区域可以保护海洋鱼类，尽管这种机制在上升的先天特征之间有所不同。大多数建模物种（主要是热带鱼）在尤卡坦北部的热带上升流中找到了避难所。然而,最高的变暖情景淹没了这个地区。相比之下,下加利福尼亚地区位于东部边界上升流系统中。虽然该地区的适用性有所增加，北部地区的上升流强度较高，是许多热带物种的环境屏障。相反，在上升流较弱的南部地区，即使在升温过程中，物种也倾向于聚集并持续存在，根据营业额分析。这些发现表明，高纬度地区的热带化可能不像以前假设的那样简单。然而，气候变化影响许多生态系统特征，比如营养关系，物候学,以及这里没有考虑的其他环境变量。此外,关于上升流系统强度增加的假设仍然存在不确定性。
