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Abstract：
Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000-2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020-2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.
摘要：
继续投资于脊髓灰质炎病毒传播数学模型的开发和应用,经济学,和风险导致它们用于支持脊髓灰质炎最终策略开发和风险管理政策。这项研究补充了2000-2019年期间的早期审查，并讨论了自2020年以来由全球根除脊髓灰质炎倡议（GPEI）合作伙伴和其他人支持的建模小组发表的研究的演变。我们系统地回顾了2020-2024.25年在同行评审期刊上以英文发表的建模论文，这些论文侧重于脊髓灰质炎病毒传播和健康经济分析。尽管人们期待已久的脊髓灰质炎病毒传播结束和GPEI日落，这将导致它对建模的支持结束，我们发现,GPEI合作伙伴支持的建模组数量增加了一倍,发表率增加.建模继续在支持GPEI和国家/区域政策方面发挥作用，但是小儿麻痹症根除治理的变化，分散管理和决策，建模方法和结果的异质性增加降低了建模结果的总体影响。同时,2016年全球协调停止2型口服脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗用于预防性免疫接种以及引入新的脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗和制剂的失败，在此期间增加了脊髓灰质炎病毒传播的复杂性和不确定性以及经济模型和政策建议。
