Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Asia\'s elderly Baby Boomer demographic (born between 1946 and 1964) faced a huge problem during the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased all-cause mortality. We aimed to provide a unique Taiwan situation regarding the impact of Baby Boomers on excess mortalities from all causes relative to non-Baby Boomers throughout distinct times of SARS-CoV-2 mutations during the COVID-19 pandemic.
METHODS: We used the Poisson time series design with a Bayesian directed acyclic graphic approach to build the background mortality prior to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2015 and 2019. It was then used for predicting the expected all-cause deaths compared to the reported figures during the COVID-19 pandemic period based on Taiwan residents, an Omicron-naïve cohort.
RESULTS: Baby Boomers experienced a 2% negative excess mortality in 2020 (Wuhan/D614G) and a 4% excess mortality in 2021 (Alpha/Delta) with a rising background mortality trend whereas non-Baby Boomers showed the corresponding figures of 4% negative excess and 1% excess with a stable trend. Baby Boomer and non-Baby Boomer excess mortality soared to 9% (95% CI: 7-10%) and 10% (95% CI: 9-11%), respectively, during the epidemic Omicron period from January to June 2022. Surprisingly, Baby Boomers aged 58-76 experienced the same 9% excess mortality as non-Baby Boomers aged 77 and beyond. Non-COVID-19 deaths were more prevalent among Baby Boomers than non-Baby Boomers (33% vs. 29%).
CONCLUSIONS: Baby Boomers were more likely to die from COVID-19 in early pandemic and had more non-COVID-19 deaths in late pandemic than older non-Baby Boomers demonstrated in Taiwan Omicron-naïve cohort. For this vulnerable population, adequate access to medical care and medical capacity require more consideration.
METHODS: We used the Poisson time series design with a Bayesian directed acyclic graphic approach to build the background mortality prior to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2015 and 2019. It was then used for predicting the expected all-cause deaths compared to the reported figures during the COVID-19 pandemic period based on Taiwan residents, an Omicron-naïve cohort.
RESULTS: Baby Boomers experienced a 2% negative excess mortality in 2020 (Wuhan/D614G) and a 4% excess mortality in 2021 (Alpha/Delta) with a rising background mortality trend whereas non-Baby Boomers showed the corresponding figures of 4% negative excess and 1% excess with a stable trend. Baby Boomer and non-Baby Boomer excess mortality soared to 9% (95% CI: 7-10%) and 10% (95% CI: 9-11%), respectively, during the epidemic Omicron period from January to June 2022. Surprisingly, Baby Boomers aged 58-76 experienced the same 9% excess mortality as non-Baby Boomers aged 77 and beyond. Non-COVID-19 deaths were more prevalent among Baby Boomers than non-Baby Boomers (33% vs. 29%).
CONCLUSIONS: Baby Boomers were more likely to die from COVID-19 in early pandemic and had more non-COVID-19 deaths in late pandemic than older non-Baby Boomers demonstrated in Taiwan Omicron-naïve cohort. For this vulnerable population, adequate access to medical care and medical capacity require more consideration.
摘要：
背景：在COVID-19大流行期间，由于全因死亡率增加，亚洲的老年婴儿潮一代人口（出生于1946年至1964年）面临着巨大的问题。我们的目标是提供一个独特的台湾情况，即在COVID-19大流行期间，在SARS-CoV-2突变的不同时期，婴儿潮一代相对于非婴儿潮一代对各种原因的过度死亡率的影响。
方法：我们使用泊松时间序列设计和贝叶斯有向无环图方法来建立2015年至2019年COVID-19大流行前的背景死亡率。然后将其用于预测预期的全因死亡人数，与基于台湾居民的COVID-19大流行期间的报告数字相比，一个Omicron天真的队列。
结果：婴儿潮一代在2020年经历了2％的负超额死亡率（武汉/D614G），在2021年经历了4％的超额死亡率（Alpha/Delta），背景死亡率趋势上升，而非婴儿潮一代表现出4％的负超额和1％的超额，趋势稳定。婴儿潮一代和非婴儿潮一代的超额死亡率飙升至9％（95％CI：7-10％）和10％（95％CI：9-11％），分别,在2022年1月至6月的Omicron流行期间。令人惊讶的是,58-76岁的婴儿潮一代经历了与77岁及以上的非婴儿潮一代相同的9％的超额死亡率。非COVID-19死亡在婴儿潮一代中比非婴儿潮一代更普遍(33%与29%）。
结论：在台湾Omicron天真的队列中，婴儿潮一代在大流行早期死于COVID-19，在大流行晚期，非COVID-19死亡人数多于年龄较大的非婴儿潮一代。对于这些弱势群体来说，充分获得医疗保健和医疗能力需要更多考虑。
方法：我们使用泊松时间序列设计和贝叶斯有向无环图方法来建立2015年至2019年COVID-19大流行前的背景死亡率。然后将其用于预测预期的全因死亡人数，与基于台湾居民的COVID-19大流行期间的报告数字相比，一个Omicron天真的队列。
结果：婴儿潮一代在2020年经历了2％的负超额死亡率（武汉/D614G），在2021年经历了4％的超额死亡率（Alpha/Delta），背景死亡率趋势上升，而非婴儿潮一代表现出4％的负超额和1％的超额，趋势稳定。婴儿潮一代和非婴儿潮一代的超额死亡率飙升至9％（95％CI：7-10％）和10％（95％CI：9-11％），分别,在2022年1月至6月的Omicron流行期间。令人惊讶的是,58-76岁的婴儿潮一代经历了与77岁及以上的非婴儿潮一代相同的9％的超额死亡率。非COVID-19死亡在婴儿潮一代中比非婴儿潮一代更普遍(33%与29%）。
结论：在台湾Omicron天真的队列中，婴儿潮一代在大流行早期死于COVID-19，在大流行晚期，非COVID-19死亡人数多于年龄较大的非婴儿潮一代。对于这些弱势群体来说，充分获得医疗保健和医疗能力需要更多考虑。
