PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria and Bulinus snails, thus controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we used machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of forward-transmitting Biomphalaria hosts throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how Biomphalaria habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in Biomphalaria distribution-while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies-can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.
摘要：
血吸虫病是由血吸虫寄生虫引起的一种被忽视的热带病。血吸虫是淡水生物虫和牛蜗牛的专性寄生虫，因此，控制蜗牛种群对降低传播风险至关重要。由于蜗牛对环境条件敏感，我们预计它们的分布会受到全球变化的显著影响。这里,我们使用机器学习，遥感,和30年的蜗牛发生记录，以绘制整个巴西前向传播Biomphalaria宿主的历史和当前分布。我们确定了影响合适栖息地分布的关键特征，并确定了Biomphalaria栖息地在过去三十年中如何随着气候和城市化而变化。我们的模型表明，气候变化推动了蜗牛寄主范围的广泛变化，而城市和城郊地区的扩张推动了栖息地适宜性的局部增加。阐明生物phalaria分布的变化-同时考虑难以从当地案例研究中检测到的非线性-可以帮助告知血吸虫病控制策略。
