PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) recently classified opium consumption as carcinogenic to humans. This study aimed to estimate the potential reduction in incident cancers by 2035 in Iran, which accounts for 42% of global opium consumption, through decreasing opium use prevalence.
UNASSIGNED: The population attributable fraction (PAF) of opium-related cancers was projected using national cancer incidence, age- and gender-specific opium use prevalence, relative cancer risks associated with opium use, and annual percentage changes in cancer incidence rates in Iran. Opium-related cancers were defined based on IARC monographs as cancers of lung, larynx, bladder, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, and pharynx. The number of preventable cancer cases under different opium prevalence scenarios was determined by subtracting attributable cases in each year based on current prevalence from those in alternative scenarios.
UNASSIGNED: By 2035, an estimated 3,001,421 new cancer cases are expected in Iran, with 904,013 (30.1%) occurring in opium-related sites. Maintaining the current opium prevalence (5.6%) is projected to cause 111,130 new cancer cases (3.7% of all cancers, 12.3% of opium-related). A 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in opium prevalence could prevent 9,016, 28,161, and 49,006 total incident cancers by 2035 in Iran, respectively. Reducing opium use prevalence by 10%-50% is projected to have the highest impact on lung cancer (prevention of 2,946-15,831 cases), stomach cancer (prevention of 2,404-12,593 cases), and bladder cancer (prevention of 1,725-9,520 cases).
UNASSIGNED: Our results highlight the significant benefits that can be achieved through effective cancer prevention policies targeting opium use in Iran. Neglecting this risk factor is estimated to pose a significant burden on cancer incidence in the next decade in this population.
UNASSIGNED: None.
UNASSIGNED: The population attributable fraction (PAF) of opium-related cancers was projected using national cancer incidence, age- and gender-specific opium use prevalence, relative cancer risks associated with opium use, and annual percentage changes in cancer incidence rates in Iran. Opium-related cancers were defined based on IARC monographs as cancers of lung, larynx, bladder, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, and pharynx. The number of preventable cancer cases under different opium prevalence scenarios was determined by subtracting attributable cases in each year based on current prevalence from those in alternative scenarios.
UNASSIGNED: By 2035, an estimated 3,001,421 new cancer cases are expected in Iran, with 904,013 (30.1%) occurring in opium-related sites. Maintaining the current opium prevalence (5.6%) is projected to cause 111,130 new cancer cases (3.7% of all cancers, 12.3% of opium-related). A 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in opium prevalence could prevent 9,016, 28,161, and 49,006 total incident cancers by 2035 in Iran, respectively. Reducing opium use prevalence by 10%-50% is projected to have the highest impact on lung cancer (prevention of 2,946-15,831 cases), stomach cancer (prevention of 2,404-12,593 cases), and bladder cancer (prevention of 1,725-9,520 cases).
UNASSIGNED: Our results highlight the significant benefits that can be achieved through effective cancer prevention policies targeting opium use in Iran. Neglecting this risk factor is estimated to pose a significant burden on cancer incidence in the next decade in this population.
UNASSIGNED: None.
摘要：
■国际癌症研究机构（IARC）最近将鸦片消费归类为对人类致癌。这项研究旨在估计到2035年伊朗癌症发病率的潜在减少。占全球鸦片消费量的42%，通过减少鸦片的使用流行。
■使用国家癌症发病率来预测与鸦片相关的癌症的人口归因分数（PAF），特定年龄和性别的鸦片使用流行率，与鸦片使用相关的相对癌症风险，以及伊朗癌症发病率的年度百分比变化。根据IARC专论将鸦片相关癌症定义为肺癌，喉部,膀胱,食道,胃,胰腺,和咽部。在不同鸦片流行情况下的可预防癌症病例数量是通过从替代情况下的病例中减去每年基于当前流行情况的可归因病例来确定的。
■到2035年，预计伊朗将有3,001,421例新的癌症病例，与鸦片有关的地点有904,013（30.1%）。维持目前的鸦片流行率（5.6％）预计将导致111,130例新的癌症病例（占所有癌症的3.7％，12.3%的鸦片相关)。10%,30%,到2035年，在伊朗，鸦片流行率降低50%可以预防9,016、28,161和49,006例癌症。分别。预计将鸦片使用率降低10%-50%对肺癌的影响最大（预防2,946-15,831例），胃癌（预防2,404-12,593例），和膀胱癌（预防1,725-9,520例）。
■我们的结果强调了通过针对伊朗鸦片使用的有效癌症预防政策可以实现的重大利益。据估计，忽视这一风险因素将在未来十年对该人群的癌症发病率造成重大负担。
■无。
■使用国家癌症发病率来预测与鸦片相关的癌症的人口归因分数（PAF），特定年龄和性别的鸦片使用流行率，与鸦片使用相关的相对癌症风险，以及伊朗癌症发病率的年度百分比变化。根据IARC专论将鸦片相关癌症定义为肺癌，喉部,膀胱,食道,胃,胰腺,和咽部。在不同鸦片流行情况下的可预防癌症病例数量是通过从替代情况下的病例中减去每年基于当前流行情况的可归因病例来确定的。
■到2035年，预计伊朗将有3,001,421例新的癌症病例，与鸦片有关的地点有904,013（30.1%）。维持目前的鸦片流行率（5.6％）预计将导致111,130例新的癌症病例（占所有癌症的3.7％，12.3%的鸦片相关)。10%,30%,到2035年，在伊朗，鸦片流行率降低50%可以预防9,016、28,161和49,006例癌症。分别。预计将鸦片使用率降低10%-50%对肺癌的影响最大（预防2,946-15,831例），胃癌（预防2,404-12,593例），和膀胱癌（预防1,725-9,520例）。
■我们的结果强调了通过针对伊朗鸦片使用的有效癌症预防政策可以实现的重大利益。据估计，忽视这一风险因素将在未来十年对该人群的癌症发病率造成重大负担。
■无。
