Abstract：
The evaluation of the results from a fibre comparison given activity level propositions is well established when considering only a single group of potential primary transfers. However, secondary transfers are less prevalent in the literature despite their potential value, especially in cases where the primary transfers are not sufficiently informative. In particular, one can consider the fibres from frequented environments of the person of interest (POI) identified in a struggle. If the POI did struggle with the complainant, these fibres can potentially be recovered in small quantities on the surface of the complainant as a result of secondary or higher order transfers. Therefore, these fibres may provide useful information that can resolve competing propositions involving struggles, as well as forensic intelligence in the form of linkages or investigative leads. If a non-differentiation is indeed found between recovered fibres and fibres from the frequented environments of the POI, these results need to be properly interpreted. In this paper, a model, based on an object oriented Bayesian network (OOBN), for evaluating such findings along with its implementation is proposed. Using available data from the literature and other sources, the model was then used to assess a few hypothetical scenarios involving secondary transfers. The results provided useful insights into secondary transfer that help to validate the model and demonstrate the potential utility that can be gained by considering transfers beyond the primary order. Moreover, these results can be used to help guide future research by identifying gaps in the literature. Finally, the direct application to a case study was conducted to demonstrate the practical aspects of such a model.
摘要：
当仅考虑一组潜在的主要转移时，可以很好地评估给定活动水平命题的纤维比较结果。然而,二次转移在文献中不那么普遍，尽管它们具有潜在的价值，特别是在初级调动信息不足的情况下。特别是,人们可以考虑来自在斗争中确定的感兴趣的人（POI）的频繁环境的纤维。如果POI确实与申诉人斗争，由于二次或更高阶转移，这些纤维有可能在投诉人的表面少量回收。因此,这些纤维可能提供有用的信息，可以解决涉及斗争的竞争命题，以及联系或调查线索形式的法医情报。如果确实发现回收的纤维和来自POI频繁环境的纤维之间没有区别，这些结果需要正确解释。在本文中,一个模型，基于面向对象的贝叶斯网络(OOBN)，建议评估这些发现及其实施情况。利用文献和其他来源的可用数据，该模型随后被用于评估几个涉及二次转移的假设情景.结果提供了对二次转移的有用见解，有助于验证模型并证明通过考虑超出主要订单的转移可以获得的潜在效用。此外，这些结果可通过找出文献中的空白来帮助指导未来的研究.最后,直接应用于案例研究是为了证明这种模型的实际方面。
