PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.
摘要：
肛门鳞状细胞癌（SCCA）的发病率在美国一直在上升，尤其是老年人（≥65岁）。我们使用年龄周期队列模型估计了这种上升对未来负担（到2035年）的影响。SCCA负担（病例/年）预计将上升，在2031-2035年，男性达到2700，女性达到7000(2016-2020年男性和女性的负担分别为2150和4600)，大多数病例年龄≥65岁（男性占61%，女性占70%，在2031-2035年；2016-2020年为40%和46%）。SCCA发病率（每100,000人）预计在65-74、75-84和≥85岁的老年男性（2031-2035年为5.0、4.9和4.3，2016-2020年为3.7、3.8、3.4）和女性（2031-2035年为11.2、12.6、8.0，2016-2020年为8.2、6.8、5.2）中上升。预计老年人SCCA负担的增加令人担忧，并强调了改善早期发现和临床护理的重要性。
