PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×104 km2 of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5-8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.
摘要：
卡波巴卡洛林尼亚纳·A·格雷，一种原产于美国热带的观赏性沉水植物，已经被介绍给欧洲的许多国家，亚洲,大洋洲,影响本地水生生态系统。鉴于该物种是一种受欢迎的水族馆植物，并且交易广泛，引入和入侵其他环境的风险很高。在当前的研究中，在优化的MaxEnt模型中，在气候变化和人类影响的影响下，预测了卡洛氏梭菌的潜在全球地理分布。该模型从水文信息数据集及20个相关影响因素中严格筛选了卡洛氏梭菌的发生记录。研究结果表明，温度和人类介导的活动显着影响了卡洛氏梭菌的分布。目前,C.Caroliniana占地约1531×104平方公里的适当栖息地，特别是在南方的东南部，中美洲和北美洲，东南亚,澳大利亚东部,欧洲大部分地区。预计在未来的气候情景下，合适的区域将扩大；然而，变化的动态在不同程度的气候变化之间有所不同。例如,C.Caroliniana预计将扩展到更高的纬度，在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5方案下全球气温升高之后，然而,在未来极端气候情景下，对极端温度的不耐受可能会介导高纬度地区的入侵，例如，SSP5-8.5.由于其入侵原因的严重影响，需要预警和严格的边境检疫程序，以防止卡罗利尼亚的引入，特别是在入侵热点地区，例如，秘鲁,意大利,和韩国。
